Introduction
Freight markets entered mid-September with mixed signals: spot prices mostly flat week over week, load-to-truck ratios higher than a year ago, and operating costs stabilizing alongside diesel. Under the surface, macro factors are doing the heavy lifting. August retail spending surprised to the upside, providing a floor for dry van demand, while a pronounced downturn in housing is pressuring industrial freight and keeping flatbed pricing in check. Meanwhile, diesel has eased from early-September highs, and the Atlantic has turned active, with Hurricane Gabrielle stirring swells along the U.S. East Coast—more of a scheduling risk than a fuel-supply shock at this point.
Spot Rate Trends
– Vans: The van load-to-truck ratio (LTR) is down 0.84% week over week and 10.12% month over month, but up a striking 60.28% year over year—evidence of tighter relative capacity than last September. Despite that, van spot rates were unchanged WoW, down 0.50% MoM, and up just 1.01% YoY.
– Reefers: Reefer LTR fell 7.23% WoW and 12.18% MoM but is 74.05% higher YoY. Spot prices held flat WoW, slipped 0.86% MoM, and edged up 0.44% YoY.
– Flatbeds: Flatbed LTR rose 8.02% WoW, fell 13.13% MoM, and surged 108.02% YoY. Even with much tighter YoY LTRs, flatbed spot prices were flat WoW, down 1.54% MoM, and 0.39% below last year.
Monthly averages corroborate the near-term softness with mild, equipment-specific nuance. From April to September 2025, all-in totals (linehaul plus surcharge) have been range-bound: vans around $2.00–$2.05 per mile, reefers around $2.28–$2.44, and flatbeds around $2.49–$2.58. September’s monthly averages ticked up slightly from August for all three, reflecting surcharges stabilizing rather than broad-based linehaul strength.
| Month (2025) | Van Spot ($/mi) | Van FSC ($/mi) | Van Total ($/mi) | Reefer Spot ($/mi) | Reefer FSC ($/mi) | Reefer Total ($/mi) | Flatbed Spot ($/mi) | Flatbed FSC ($/mi) | Flatbed Total ($/mi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 1.57 | 0.39 | 1.96 | 1.86 | 0.42 | 2.28 | 2.11 | 0.46 | 2.57 |
| May | 1.62 | 0.37 | 1.99 | 1.95 | 0.41 | 2.36 | 2.13 | 0.45 | 2.58 |
| Jun | 1.63 | 0.39 | 2.02 | 1.94 | 0.43 | 2.37 | 2.10 | 0.47 | 2.57 |
| Jul | 1.63 | 0.42 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 0.46 | 2.41 | 2.04 | 0.51 | 2.55 |
| Aug | 1.61 | 0.42 | 2.03 | 1.96 | 0.45 | 2.41 | 1.99 | 0.50 | 2.49 |
| Sep | 1.63 | 0.42 | 2.05 | 1.99 | 0.45 | 2.44 | 2.01 | 0.50 | 2.51 |
Note: Month-over-month “trend” percentages above reflect weekly index dynamics; the monthly averages in the table show slight September firming driven partly by fuel surcharges.
Market Drivers
– Consumer Demand: August retail sales rose 0.6% month over month and 5% year over year, outpacing expectations. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose 0.7%. This helps explain why dry van LTRs are far tighter than last year even as rates barely budge: shippers have leaned on contract capacity, while spot absorbs overflow tied to e-commerce and back‑to‑school restocking.
– Housing & Construction: Housing is the weak link. August single‑family starts fell 7.0% to a 890,000 annual rate, and permits declined 2.2%, pointing to softer near‑term construction activity. That backdrop aligns with flatbed’s YoY spot rate dip (−0.39%) despite a much higher YoY LTR (+108.0%): there are fewer trucks posting, but demand from homebuilding remains soft, capping pricing power.
– Energy & Weather: Hurricane Gabrielle intensified over the Atlantic; forecasters warn of dangerous surf along the East Coast this week. While not a Gulf refining threat, the swell and port safety protocols can briefly disrupt East Coast drayage and vessel schedules, introducing timing risk into import flows and short‑haul demand.
– Supply Side/Capacity: National truck postings are down 30.12% YoY even as load postings are up 20.27%. That imbalance is why all three equipment LTRs are sharply higher than last year, yet the absence of a broad demand boom, plus shippers’ contract coverage, restrains spot price upside.
Fuel & Costs
Operating costs continue to find a near‑term equilibrium. The national diesel benchmark in our dataset is $3.74 per gallon as of September 15, 2025. National fuel prices dipped 0.80% WoW, rose 0.27% MoM, and are up 5.34% YoY. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly survey shows the September 15 on‑highway diesel average at roughly $3.74 ($3.739), down $0.027 from the prior week but about $0.21 higher than a year earlier; West Coast prices remain the highest and Gulf Coast the lowest. This aligns with recent reporting that PADD‑level dispersion persists, implying regional differences in fuel surcharges and lane profitability.
For carriers, surcharge stabilization has helped offset soft linehaul. In September, monthly average all‑in totals calculated from the dataset were approximately $2.05/mi for vans (1.63 spot + 0.42 FSC), $2.44/mi for reefers (1.99 + 0.45), and $2.51/mi for flatbeds (2.01 + 0.50). If diesel drifts sideways to slightly lower through autumn—as implied by the latest EIA trend commentary—margin stability should improve on lanes with consistent backhauls.
Two wildcards bear watching:
– Energy logistics: A recent quality issue on certain Permian pipelines to the Gulf Coast underscores how midstream disruptions can ripple into refinery runs and distillate output, though no direct diesel shortages are indicated.
– Weather: While Gabrielle is an Atlantic storm, the heart of U.S. refining sits on the Gulf Coast. A quiet Gulf is supportive for diesel stability; any late‑season Gulf landfall would raise near‑term price risk.
Carrier Outlook
Short term (next 2–4 weeks):
– Demand: National load postings slipped 2.08% WoW and 13.01% MoM, a typical shoulder‑season slowdown after summer. Yet YoY loads are up 20.27%, suggesting a firmer foundation than in 2024.
– Supply: Truck postings fell 2.46% WoW and 1.86% MoM; the 30.12% YoY drop signals continued capacity attrition. This is why LTRs remain high YoY across all modes even without strong price appreciation.
– Pricing: All three spot benchmarks were flat WoW; modest MoM declines (van −0.50%, reefer −0.86%, flatbed −1.54%) reflect competitive bidding in a demand lull. Expect selective firmness around retail peaks (DC replenishment, parcel consolidations, import drayage) and in lanes where capacity exits have been concentrated.
Medium term (Q4 setup):
– Consumers remain the swing factor. August’s upside retail surprise indicates resilience heading into the holiday build but is tempered by a softer labor market and higher delinquency rates, which could limit discretionary categories. That mix generally supports vans and reefers more than flatbeds.
– Housing drag likely persists into Q4 given August’s drop in starts and permits, restraining flatbed rate momentum even as capacity has thinned.
– Fuel: With diesel roughly in the mid‑$3.70s and recent weekly declines, Q4 surcharges should be manageable absent a Gulf weather event or a refining outage. Regional FSC spreads will continue to matter for West Coast exposure.
Bottom line: The freight economy is being pulled in opposite directions—consumer‑led stability versus construction‑led softness. The dataset shows materially tighter LTRs than a year ago (van +60%, reefer +74%, flatbed +108%) driven by fewer trucks posting (−30% YoY), but spot price gains remain muted because shippers have kept contract lanes well‑covered and current demand is steady, not booming. Carriers that manage fuel, avoid empty miles, and target higher‑velocity retail and grocery corridors should outperform as we pivot toward peak season.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update (Sept. 15, 2025); Rigzone summary of EIA diesel trends (Sept. 22, 2025); Reuters, U.S. single‑family housing starts and permits (Sept. 17, 2025); Barron’s, August retail sales beat (Sept. 17, 2025); AP News, Hurricane Gabrielle advisories (Sept. 22–23, 2025); Plains All American pipeline quality update, Reuters (Sept. 16, 2025).
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