Canada’s parcel pipeline just snapped at the start of peak. On September 25, the Canadian Union of Postal Workers launched a nationwide strike hours after Ottawa unveiled sweeping reforms to Canada Post. The crown corporation has halted processing and delivery, suspended service guarantees and cancelled scheduled pickups—an immediate shock to retailers and their transportation partners heading into Black Friday and holiday surges.
At the heart of the dispute is the government’s plan to overhaul a postal system it says is “effectively insolvent.” The blueprint authorizes converting the remaining four million door‑to‑door addresses to community mailboxes, loosens letter delivery standards to cut air transport costs, and lifts a decades‑old freeze on rationalizing rural post offices. Ottawa cites more than $5 billion in cumulative losses since 2018, a record $407 million loss in the second quarter of 2025 and roughly $10 million in daily losses. The government also notes Canada Post’s parcel share has fallen below 24%, down from about 62% in 2019—evidence, it argues, that private competitors have captured growth as e‑commerce matures.
Union leaders call the reforms a direct threat to jobs and service quality, accusing the corporation of stalling talks for nearly two years. CUPW, which represents roughly 55,000 workers, says it wants wage security and a broader public‑service mandate (including proposals like postal banking), while opposing an accelerated shift away from door‑to‑door service. With negotiations stalled, the strike has shuttered mail and parcel operations nationwide.
Business groups, meanwhile, are sounding alarms about cash flow and customer churn if the stoppage drags into October. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business welcomed the reform push but urged Ottawa to ensure continuity of service during the dispute, warning that another protracted shutdown will drive small merchants to abandon Canada Post permanently. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce is pressing both sides to return to talks immediately.
For trucking and parcel operators, the hit is twofold. First, Canada Post’s network acts as a massive final‑mile “relief valve” for ecommerce. With that valve closed, demand will surge toward private integrators and courier affiliates, putting pressure on middle‑mile linehauls into Canadian gateway hubs and regional sort centers. Expect injection caps, tightened appointment windows, and tougher tender acceptances—especially on peak‑season promotions where volumes spike unpredictably. Second, many shippers that relied on postal-labeled returns and low‑cost postal inject services will pivot to LTL and dedicated final‑mile providers, reshaping route density and dwell at cross‑dock facilities. Canada Post has confirmed that during the national strike it will not process or deliver mail and parcels, service guarantees are suspended and no new items will be accepted, directly forcing that freight to find new homes.
Cross‑border dynamics will also shift. U.S. and international merchants who used postal channels for Canadian deliveries will move volumes to integrators and Canadian couriers, raising landed costs and altering customs workflows. That substitution effect—arriving just as retailers finalize holiday allocations—will ripple into trucking through added middle‑mile moves, pop‑up capacity needs and more frequent mode changes on tight lead times. This is particularly acute for apparel, electronics and SMB marketplaces that typically rely on low‑cost postal lanes.
The disruption is sharpest in rural, northern and Indigenous communities, where private alternatives are sparse and costly. Canada Post says it will continue delivering socio‑economic government cheques and manage in‑network live‑animal shipments during the stoppage—limited exceptions that still leave large gaps for medicines, spare parts and repairs that normally ride postal routes before transferring to local carriers. Trucking providers serving remote regions should anticipate urgent, low‑density moves and out‑of‑route expedites as community services scramble.
What to do now: carriers and 3PLs should coordinate early with existing clients on peak caps and diversion plans; pre‑stage equipment and drivers near high‑volume injection points; and establish “Plan B” cross‑dock flows for postal‑labeled freight that suddenly needs courier labels. Shippers should widen delivery windows in customer communications, pause postal‑based returns, and re‑rate baskets for private‑carrier economics—particularly bulky or remote‑area SKUs. These steps won’t erase the pain, but they can prevent bottlenecks from cascading across networks.
The political backdrop matters for how long this lasts. Ottawa is signaling urgency to reform, while labor leaders vow to resist changes they say would erode public service. Federal mediators have encouraged both sides to keep talking, but with transformation now government policy and the strike in full swing, resolution will likely hinge on whether the parties can carve out a deal that preserves weekend capacity and job protections while letting the corporation retool its delivery model. Until then, trucking and parcel networks will carry the overflow.
Sources: FreightWaves, Canada Post, Public Services and Procurement Canada, Reuters, The Washington Post, Associated Press
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