Introduction
During the week of September 22–28, 2025, new USDOT registrations totaled 3,312 entities, comprising 3,044 motor carriers, 101 brokers, and 167 “others” (freight forwarders, cargo tank facilities, etc.). Compared with the prior week (September 15–21), total registrations rose by 4.8%. Carriers were up 4.2% (+122), brokers increased 17.4% (+15), and “others” climbed 10.6% (+16). Carriers represented 91.9% of this week’s additions, brokers 3.0%, and others 5.0%. The seven-day average daily volume was 473 registrations, with a midweek peak on Wednesday and the expected weekend trough.
Weekly Overview
This was the strongest week since mid-August (when totals reached 3,431) and marked a clear improvement over the previous two weeks (3,196 and 3,159). Midweek strength was evident: Wednesday (9/24) posted 652 registrations—the weekly high—while Friday (9/26) moderated to 552, and weekend activity fell to 138 on Saturday and 112 on Sunday, a typical cadence for USDOT filings that are processed and submitted primarily on business days.
Brokers’ outsized week-over-week gain (17%) is notable. It suggests renewed intermediation activity—either new entrants positioning for Q4 retail flows or existing logistics professionals formalizing operations. Carrier growth, while more modest, continues to track steady formation after the post–Labor Day lull seen earlier in September.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 (Mon) | 577 | 16 | 41 | 634 |
| 2025-09-23 (Tue) | 570 | 13 | 26 | 609 |
| 2025-09-24 (Wed) | 595 | 24 | 33 | 652 |
| 2025-09-25 (Thu) | 563 | 18 | 34 | 615 |
| 2025-09-26 (Fri) | 509 | 25 | 18 | 552 |
| 2025-09-27 (Sat) | 126 | 3 | 9 | 138 |
| 2025-09-28 (Sun) | 104 | 2 | 6 | 112 |
| Week | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-07 to 2025-07-13 | 3,194 | 106 | 131 | 3,431 |
| 2025-07-14 to 2025-07-20 | 3,097 | 80 | 98 | 3,275 |
| 2025-07-21 to 2025-07-27 | 3,092 | 105 | 111 | 3,308 |
| 2025-07-28 to 2025-08-03 | 2,956 | 99 | 108 | 3,163 |
| 2025-08-04 to 2025-08-10 | 3,093 | 108 | 125 | 3,326 |
| 2025-08-11 to 2025-08-17 | 3,070 | 102 | 120 | 3,292 |
| 2025-08-18 to 2025-08-24 | 3,202 | 100 | 129 | 3,431 |
| 2025-08-25 to 2025-08-31 | 3,029 | 94 | 127 | 3,250 |
| 2025-09-01 to 2025-09-07 | 2,661 | 92 | 119 | 2,872 |
| 2025-09-08 to 2025-09-14 | 2,974 | 97 | 125 | 3,196 |
| 2025-09-15 to 2025-09-21 | 2,922 | 86 | 151 | 3,159 |
| 2025-09-22 to 2025-09-28 | 3,044 | 101 | 167 | 3,312 |
State-Level Trends
Top-origin states were consistent and Sunbelt-heavy, with Texas, California, and Florida dominating most days. Highlights:
– Mon (9/22): TX=73 and CA=73 (tie for first), FL=59. Pennsylvania (36) rounded out the upper tier.
– Tue (9/23): FL=75 led, followed by TX=66 and CA=55.
– Wed (9/24): TX=80, CA=65, FL=52.
– Thu (9/25): TX=69, CA=66, FL=64—an unusually tight top three within five filings.
– Fri (9/26): TX=62, CA=48, FL=37; NY=33 and PA=31 also stood out ahead of the weekend.
– Sat (9/27): CA=19, FL=15, TX=13 led a broadly lower weekend pattern.
– Sun (9/28): TX=16, CA=10, NC=8, FL=7.
Summed across the week, Texas (~379 filings), California (~336), and Florida (~309) together accounted for roughly 31% of all new registrations—underscoring the concentration of new entrants in the nation’s three largest freight-producing states. The Northeast made a midweek showing (NY and PA both topped 30 on 9/26), while the Carolinas and Georgia remained steady contributors aligned with Southeastern industrial and retail distribution corridors.
Market Drivers
– Diesel costs nudged higher: The national average on‑highway diesel price rose to $3.749/gal for the week of September 22, up 0.27% from the prior week. Regionally, gains were led by the Midwest and Rockies, while the East Coast was flat and the West Coast remained highest. Stable-to-slightly higher fuel costs can shape new-entrant calculus, but the incremental move is unlikely to deter formations by itself.
– Spot market signals were mixed to soft: Over the seven days starting September 14, national linehaul spot benchmarks dipped for dry van (−$0.01 to $1.65/mi) and reefer (−$0.02 to $2.00), while flatbed rose $0.02 to $2.05, according to DAT updates. FreightWaves’ OTVI (tender volumes) fell 1.9% week over week late in September, with accepted contract volumes down 1.5%—a “sour” close to the month even as major markets like Southern California and Atlanta eked out gains. These data describe a demand environment that is stable-to-soft but close to year-ago levels, consistent with our reading of steady carrier formations and a sharper pickup in broker registrations.
– Weather risk in the Atlantic basin: Hurricane Humberto intensified in the central Atlantic late in the week, while a separate disturbance near Hispaniola and eastern Cuba was tracking toward the Bahamas, with risk for the U.S. Southeast early the following week. Even without a U.S. landfall during our reporting window, storm‑related planning can prompt precautionary broker sign‑ups and last‑minute capacity arrangements in coastal markets.
– Policy backdrop and potential disruption: As of September 29–30, airlines and aviation groups warned that a possible federal funding lapse could strain parts of the transportation system if Congress did not act, raising general uncertainty. While a shutdown’s immediate impact on USDOT registrations is typically limited compared with aviation operations, broad policy uncertainty can temper short‑term expansion decisions for some firms.
Outlook
Looking to the week of September 29–October 5, we expect:
– Registrations to remain near the current run‑rate: The latest week’s 3,312 total sits below the late‑August highs yet comfortably above early‑September levels, suggesting the market is stabilizing into the fall shipping window. If spot demand remains tepid but steady, carrier formations should continue at a moderate pace, with brokers seeing periodic bursts tied to retail and weather‑contingency needs.
– Fuel to be a neutral‑to‑slight headwind: With diesel averaging $3.749/gal in the latest EIA‑based reading and another update due September 30, fuel remains range‑bound. Sharp fuel volatility would be likelier to move the needle on formations; absent that, cost pressure looks manageable for new entrants.
– Regional watch points:
– Southeast and Mid‑Atlantic: Monitor storm tracks and any flood‑related disruptions that could pull forward temporary capacity needs or slow filings in affected counties.
– Southern California and Atlanta: Both markets showed late‑September volume resilience, a supportive signal for carrier utilization and brokerage activity in the early weeks of Q4.
Bottom line: Week‑over‑week growth in USDOT registrations—led proportionally by brokers and supported by steady carrier formations—aligns with a freight market transitioning from early‑September softness toward seasonal Q4 needs. Texas, California, and Florida continue to anchor new‑entrant geography. Near‑term risks include tropical weather and federal funding uncertainty; however, with fuel stable and freight indicators close to year‑ago levels, we expect a continued, measured pace of new registrations into early October.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration (via YCharts); Truckstop Insider regional diesel summary; FreightWaves SONAR market update; Trucking Dive spot‑rate tracker; Associated Press and Politico hurricane coverage; Reuters coverage of potential U.S. government funding lapse.
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