Introduction
I’ve hauled freight through plenty of soft patches and hot streaks. This week’s board says we’re in that tricky middle: capacity is tightening week over week, but most spot rates are barely moving. Using verified data through September 29, 2025, here’s what the numbers mean for your next bid and where to point the truck in October.
Spot Rate Trends
– Vans: The load-to-truck ratio (LTR) climbed 10.3% week over week (WoW), but is down 10.1% month over month (MoM) and up 60.3% year over year (YoY). Van spot rates nudged up 0.5% WoW, slipped 0.5% MoM, and are up 1.0% YoY. Translation: more loads per truck than last week and far more than last year, yet brokers aren’t lifting bids much—use the tighter board to squeeze for better accessorials and fuel escalators.
– Reefers: LTR rose 12.3% WoW, fell 12.2% MoM, and jumped 74.1% YoY. Reefer spot rates were flat WoW, down 0.9% MoM, and up 0.4% YoY. Tightening supply isn’t yet pricing in—push for detention protection and minimum temp‑control fees; hold your rate floors on late-week food DC freight.
– Flatbeds: LTR increased 5.0% WoW, dropped 13.1% MoM, and soared 108.0% YoY. Flatbed spot rates gained 2.0% WoW, fell 1.5% MoM, and are off 0.4% YoY. Even with the biggest YoY LTR gains, rates are still a hair below last year—target short‑haul steel, building products, and machinery reloads where timing is tight to capture that WoW lift.
Market Drivers
– Supply/demand balance: National loads posted rose 3.1% WoW while truck postings fell 5.1% WoW. That’s a double tailwind for carriers—more freight, fewer trucks—so negotiate with confidence on same‑day tenders and end‑of‑week recoveries. MoM, loads are down 13.0% and trucks down 1.9%, which explains the sluggish price response despite tighter weeklies. YoY, loads are up 20.3% while truck postings are down 30.1%—capacity keeps bleeding out compared with 2024.
– Macro demand signals: Consumer confidence fell again in September, to 94.2, with perceptions of job availability weakening for a ninth straight month. Softening household sentiment can trim discretionary retail and parcel‑related freight into peak season, so expect choppy but serviceable demand rather than a blowout peak.
– Manufacturing pulse: S&P Global’s flash September PMI commentary shows business growth slowed for a second month, with tariffs lifting input costs while firms report less room to pass them through. That lines up with flatish dry van and reefer pricing and only a modest flatbed uptick.
– Weather watch: The Atlantic basin is active offshore. Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda are producing dangerous swells and coastal impacts, including Outer Banks erosion. Even without U.S. landfall, expect occasional port schedule tweaks and tighter capacity on I‑95 coastal lanes when surf advisories and wind disrupt operations.
Fuel & Costs
– Pump price snapshot: National on‑highway diesel is effectively flat WoW in our dataset, at $3.75/gal as of September 29. For reference, EIA’s most recent published weekly average before that (September 22) was $3.749/gal, up a penny from the prior week—consistent with a “flat to slightly up” read.
– What could move diesel next: OPEC+ is considering a bigger crude output increase for November, which would normally cap prices; at the same time, Russia announced a partial diesel export ban through year‑end due to domestic shortages, which could tighten distillate markets. Net effect: volatility risk is up even if the national average has been steady.
– Practical fueling: West Coast prices remain structurally higher; if your route allows, fuel in lower‑tax PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) states and top off before entering PADD 5 markets. Use your surcharge schedule aggressively—YoY, the national fuel index is up 4.46%, and your FSC should reflect that.
Carrier Outlook
– October playbook for vans: With LTR up 10.3% WoW and trucks down 5.1% nationally, prioritize late‑week retail replenishment and same‑day rescue loads where brokers pay up. Keep minimums: add-on for inside delivery, driver assist, and weekend pickups. Given consumer confidence slippage, protect margins with tighter acceptance rules on sub‑200‑mile loads unless they set up a paid reload.
– Reefers: Tighter board, flat price—classic signal to bid firm and win on service. Lock in detention (hour 1) and strict temp/TTR language. Use drop‑trailer access to leverage DCs and reduce wait time. Expect modest seasonal lift into October (proteins, confectionery, frozen) but don’t count on a rate spike; the data says hold the line more than chase the board.
– Flatbeds: Even with LTR up triple digits YoY, rates are only up WoW. That means money is in velocity: short‑to‑medium hauls with fast reloads beat long one‑and‑dones. Tighten securement accessorials (tarps, chains, pipe stakes) and re‑price anything requiring specialized gear. Watch for weather‑related port diversions that can create odd backhaul opportunities on the coastal Southeast and Mid‑Atlantic.
– Bid strategy across modes:
1) Use WoW tightening to raise your floor RPM by 2–3% on same‑day tenders.
2) Keep fuel escalators explicit: trigger at $3.75 and adjust weekly off the EIA index.
3) MoM softness argues for disciplined acceptance—don’t overbook October calendars on thin margins.
4) YoY capacity shrink tells you the power balance is improving for carriers; stretch payment terms, not price.
– Cost control: Idling discipline and route‑based fueling matter more if Russian diesel export restrictions ripple into distillate spreads. Lock in larger network discounts where you have consistent lanes, and avoid premium coasts for big fills.
Six-Month Rate & Surcharge Snapshot
| Month | Segment | Spot Rate ($/mi) | Fuel Surcharge ($/mi) | Total ($/mi) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04 | Van | 1.57 | 0.39 | 1.96 |
| 2025-04 | Reefer | 1.86 | 0.42 | 2.28 |
| 2025-04 | Flatbed | 2.11 | 0.46 | 2.57 |
| 2025-05 | Van | 1.62 | 0.37 | 1.99 |
| 2025-05 | Reefer | 1.95 | 0.41 | 2.36 |
| 2025-05 | Flatbed | 2.13 | 0.45 | 2.58 |
| 2025-06 | Van | 1.63 | 0.39 | 2.02 |
| 2025-06 | Reefer | 1.94 | 0.43 | 2.37 |
| 2025-06 | Flatbed | 2.10 | 0.47 | 2.57 |
| 2025-07 | Van | 1.63 | 0.42 | 2.05 |
| 2025-07 | Reefer | 1.95 | 0.46 | 2.41 |
| 2025-07 | Flatbed | 2.04 | 0.51 | 2.55 |
| 2025-08 | Van | 1.61 | 0.42 | 2.03 |
| 2025-08 | Reefer | 1.96 | 0.45 | 2.41 |
| 2025-08 | Flatbed | 1.99 | 0.50 | 2.49 |
| 2025-09 | Van | 1.63 | 0.42 | 2.05 |
| 2025-09 | Reefer | 1.98 | 0.45 | 2.43 |
| 2025-09 | Flatbed | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
Bottom line: The board is tightening into October, but macro signals argue for discipline. Use the WoW capacity squeeze to lift floors, keep FSCs current to $3.75 diesel, and prioritize fast‑turn freight where service premiums are real. When in doubt, protect the clock—your best leverage in a “tight but not spiking” market is time.
Sources Consulted: U.S. Energy Information Administration – Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update; Reuters – U.S. Consumer Confidence, OPEC+ output considerations, Russia diesel export ban; AP News – Atlantic hurricane impacts near Bermuda and U.S. East Coast; S&P Global Market Intelligence – U.S. PMI commentary; Reuters – Eurozone manufacturing PMI context.
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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