Trans-Pacific spot rates into the U.S. West Coast have tumbled to fresh two-year lows just as China’s Golden Week factory shutdown begins, signaling a softer-than-usual finish to peak season and a thinner import pipeline for domestic truckers to chase through year-end. FreightWaves reported the latest leg down on Asia–West Coast lanes and warned that underlying demand looks weak into Q4.
Real-time pricing corroborates the slump — and the split between coasts. As of Tuesday, September 30, Freightos’ weekly read showed Asia–U.S. West Coast spot prices falling 15% week over week to $1,853 per FEU, while Asia–U.S. East Coast rates rose 16% to $3,967 per FEU. The widening spread reflects shippers’ persistent aversion to routing discretionary cargo through the West Coast when demand is soft and capacity is abundant, a dynamic that tends to sap Los Angeles/Long Beach transload and drayage pull-through.
Carriers are now leaning on the lever they still control: capacity. Maersk’s October North America update flagged multiple Golden Week blank sailings on trans-Pacific services and a temporary suspension of its TP9 string, alongside a withdrawal of Peak Season Surcharges for the U.S. West Coast. Notably, Maersk says it does not plan to add any surcharge tied to the U.S. government’s new Chinese vessel port-call fees taking effect October 14. Fewer departures should slow the rate slide — but with booking windows shrinking and demand already front-loaded earlier this summer, the near-term effect for truckers is more stop-and-start import flow rather than a surge.
Policy risk is still hanging over routing decisions. The Loadstar reports that USTR port-call fees for Chinese-built or Chinese-operated ships will begin phasing in on October 14, with analysts estimating a meaningful cost hit for some lines. Even if big carriers absorb or mitigate the fees initially, the rule keeps a ceiling on rate recovery and could twist port choices at the margin — especially for services with heavy China tonnage exposure. For inland networks, that argues for continued volatility in which gateways see volume, and when.
How soft is spot right now? Forwarder quoting suggests the floor may be even lower than headline indices. A Tuesday update from Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index pegged China–U.S. West Coast sell rates “near $1,300/FEU” as Golden Week quiet set in and carriers weighed more blanks — a sign of price wars flaring for commodity freight. If those levels persist, importers have less urgency to move now, which dials back transload orders, short-haul drayage and near-port truckload tenders into October.
Rail intermodal is holding up better than ocean prices would suggest, offering one of the few offsets for domestic capacity planners. U.S. railroads moved 371,988 intermodal units for the week ending September 27, up 2.2% year over year, with year-to-date intermodal up 3.5%. If ocean carriers’ October blanks create bunching, some of that demand may spill onto transcontinental intermodal — especially for retailers topping off inventories for November promotions — but the broader import drawdown still points to modest, uneven truckload opportunities versus a classic peak.
Why it matters for trucking:
- Port truckload and drayage: Expect choppier gate moves instead of sustained surges at LA/LB. Deeper ocean discounts reduce “ship now” urgency, trimming transload and short-haul drayage pulls in October unless blanks create artificial mini-peaks.
- Intermodal competition: With intermodal volumes up year over year, long-haul TL may see more head-to-head pricing pressure on transcon lanes even as imports cool. Watch for tighter rail ramps during post-blanking rebounds.
- Network routing risk: The October 14 U.S. port-fee rule for Chinese ships injects uncertainty into service rotations. Carriers say they won’t immediately tack on surcharges, but any pivot in loop design could reallocate boxes among West, Gulf and East Coast gateways — and the inland lanes that feed them.
- Rate cadence into holidays: With spot ocean rates depressed and bookings pulled forward earlier this summer, truckload demand tied to holiday imports likely stays muted and episodic rather than building momentum through November. If Golden Week blankings bite harder than expected, look for short-lived load spikes followed by lulls.
The bottom line: ocean carriers are using blank sailings to slow the slide, but weaker end-demand and policy overhang are winning the tug-of-war for now. For U.S. truckers, that translates to more tactical opportunity — grabbing volume around vessel bunching and promotional pull-forward — and less of the broad, durable peak that fills networks from the ports to the heartland.
Sources: FreightWaves, Freightos, Maersk, The Loadstar, Association of American Railroads (AAR), Freight Right Logistics
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