Introduction
Freight markets entered the week of October 6, 2025 on firmer footing as load volumes accelerated faster than truck supply. National load postings rose 13.5% week over week and 18.8% month over month, while truck postings increased just 2.0% WoW and 3.6% MoM. Year over year, loads are up 45.5% against a 26.1% drop in equipment postings—an imbalance that is tightening spot capacity even before the heart of Q4 peak season. Fuel costs eased 1.1% WoW and 1.1% MoM but remain 3.3% higher than a year ago, moderating the cost base but not yet reversing year-over-year increases. Against this backdrop, mode-specific load-to-truck ratios (LTRs) posted broad gains: van LTR up 13.8% WoW, reefer LTR up 17.3% WoW, and flatbed LTR up 6.7% WoW, with each mode showing triple-digit LTR growth versus last year.
Spot Rate Trends
The near-term rate picture is steady-to-firmer, with modest week-over-week increases and clearer sequential (September to October) improvement in the monthly data:
– Dry van: Spot rates rose 0.5% week over week, were flat month over month, and are down 1.0% year over year. In the monthly history, van linehaul averaged $1.68 per mile in October, up from $1.63 in September and $1.61 in August.
– Reefer: Spot rates gained 0.87% WoW, slipped 0.43% MoM, and are 0.86% lower YoY. The monthly series shows October at $2.03, up from $1.99 in September and $1.96 in August.
– Flatbed: Spot rates were unchanged WoW and MoM and are 0.78% lower YoY. October linehaul printed $2.05, up from $2.01 in September and $1.99 in August.
The disconnect between surging LTRs (van +87.0% YoY; reefer +118.4% YoY; flatbed +114.7% YoY) and slightly lower YoY spot rates suggests two dynamics at work: (1) demand recovery from last year is still developing unevenly across sectors, and (2) contract pricing and lingering competition among small carriers are tempering spot rate pass-through even as capacity thins. Nationally, the sharper expansion in loads relative to trucks points to gradual firming into late October if volumes hold.
Market Drivers
– Manufacturing and goods demand: The September ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 49.1, indicating a seventh straight month of contraction, but with production back in expansion (51.0) and customers’ inventories still “too low.” That mix—soft new orders but lean inventories—often precedes episodic restocking, a pattern consistent with rising load postings and improving LTRs in early October.
– Labor, sentiment, and spending: With official September data delayed, private- and survey-based reads point to a cooler labor backdrop and softer spending intentions. The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows rising concern about job loss and higher expected unemployment, alongside a tick up in one‑year inflation expectations to 3.4%. Households still see job-finding prospects as reasonable, but they trimmed spending plans—conditions that typically shift freight toward replenishment runs rather than sustained demand surges.
– Weather and seasonality: Hurricane season risks remain, but current tropical activity is tracking away from the U.S. mainland. Newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry is projected to arc into the open Atlantic, limiting U.S. logistics disruption risk in the near term. That keeps capacity more available for holiday staging, produce in the Southeast and West, and e-commerce replenishment.
Fuel & Costs
As of October 6, the national average on-highway diesel price is $3.71 per gallon. That aligns with a 1.1% week-over-week decline and stabilizing pump price trends heading into autumn. Lower diesel provides incremental margin relief for carriers, particularly on longer-haul reefer and flatbed lanes where fuel burn is higher.
Macro energy fundamentals are also tilting supportive for lower fuel costs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration this week raised its 2025 oil production forecast to a record 13.53 million barrels per day and cautioned that oversupply could pressure crude benchmarks lower, a backdrop that typically feeds through to diesel with a lag. If realized, that would further ease operating costs into late Q4, barring refinery outages.
Note that within our dataset, national fuel prices are down 1.07% WoW and 1.07% MoM but up 3.34% YoY—consistent with a year-on-year fuel headwind despite recent weekly relief. Carriers should reflect that asymmetry in fuel surcharge schedules and contract escalators during Q4 bids.
Carrier Outlook
– Supply–demand balance: With national loads up 13.5% WoW and trucks up only 2.0% WoW, near-term spot markets should stay tight, especially in retail distribution corridors (Mid-Atlantic/NE, SoCal/Desert SW) and produce-originating regions. Elevated LTRs across van (+12.4% MoM), reefer (+5.7% MoM), and flatbed (+26.8% MoM) point to firmer bargaining power for carriers versus September.
– Rates: Despite LTR strength, YoY spot rates remain slightly below last year across all modes (van −0.99%, reefer −0.86%, flatbed −0.78%). Expect incremental gains rather than a breakout: the ISM data still imply a manufacturing sector in mild contraction, but lean customer inventories and early holiday positioning are catalysts for selective rate lifts, particularly on lanes with tight backhauls.
– Costs: With diesel at $3.71/gal and trending lower week to week, all-in costs should ease modestly. If EIA’s oversupply scenario plays out, Q4 fuel volatility may be milder than typical, reducing the need for frequent surcharge recalibration; still, localized refinery maintenance can temporarily tighten regional diesel spreads.
– Risk watch: Consumer caution and a softer labor tone could cap peak-season upside. Weather risk appears limited in the near term with Tropical Storm Jerry tracking away from the U.S., but carriers should maintain contingency plans for late-season systems and early winter storms in high-altitude corridors.
Below is a summary of the last seven months of spot rates, fuel surcharges, and all-in totals by mode.
| Month (2025) | Van Spot ($/mi) | Van Fuel Surcharge | Van Total | Reefer Spot ($/mi) | Reefer Fuel Surcharge | Reefer Total | Flatbed Spot ($/mi) | Flatbed Fuel Surcharge | Flatbed Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 1.57 | 0.39 | 1.96 | 1.86 | 0.42 | 2.28 | 2.11 | 0.46 | 2.57 |
| May | 1.62 | 0.37 | 1.99 | 1.95 | 0.41 | 2.36 | 2.13 | 0.45 | 2.58 |
| Jun | 1.63 | 0.39 | 2.02 | 1.94 | 0.43 | 2.37 | 2.10 | 0.47 | 2.57 |
| Jul | 1.63 | 0.42 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 0.46 | 2.41 | 2.04 | 0.51 | 2.55 |
| Aug | 1.61 | 0.42 | 2.03 | 1.96 | 0.45 | 2.41 | 1.99 | 0.50 | 2.49 |
| Sep | 1.63 | 0.42 | 2.05 | 1.99 | 0.45 | 2.44 | 2.01 | 0.50 | 2.51 |
| Oct | 1.68 | 0.42 | 2.10 | 2.03 | 0.46 | 2.49 | 2.05 | 0.50 | 2.55 |
Note: Diesel averaged $3.71/gal nationally on October 6, 2025. Surcharges shown reflect observed monthly averages in the dataset.
In sum, macro conditions are nudging spot freight off the bottom without signaling a full-fledged upcycle. Manufacturing remains sub-50 but with pockets of production strength and lean inventories; consumer sentiment is more cautious; energy markets are tilting toward oversupply, easing diesel. The result is a freight environment where capacity is quietly tightening (as evidenced by LTRs and weaker truck postings), but price discovery remains incremental. Carriers should lean into network density, prioritize lanes with improving backhaul balance, and be prepared to press for modest all-in rate lifts as shippers stage Q4 inventory—especially where the recent WoW and MoM LTR gains are most pronounced.
Sources Consulted: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI, Oct. 1, 2025; Reuters coverage of NY Fed consumer expectations, Oct. 7, 2025; Reuters summary of EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct. 7, 2025; YCharts (EIA) U.S. Retail Diesel Price, week of Oct. 6, 2025; Washington Post Weather: Tropical Storm Jerry tracker, Oct. 7, 2025.
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