US containerized import demand is poised to run below seasonal norms through the remainder of 2025 — a cooling that will ripple from the marine terminals to drayage yards, transload docks and over-the-road networks. That outlook aligns with FreightWaves’ assessment of a weaker back stretch for imports and is being reinforced this week by fresh data and rate signals across the ocean and domestic freight markets.
September numbers underscore the inflection: US ports handled about 2.31 million TEUs, down 8.4% year over year, with China-origin volumes sliding nearly 23%. Retailers pulled holiday goods forward earlier in the year, and a rolling wave of new and pending tariffs — including a 25% duty on upholstered furniture and cabinetry and a separate China increase tentatively slated for November 10 — is expected to keep monthly totals under 2 million TEUs for the balance of 2025. Those dynamics point to less import-driven freight for truckload and LTL carriers as we move deeper into peak retail season.
Pricing on the water is telling the same story. Trans-Pacific spot rates fell sharply again this week, with Asia–US West Coast averages sliding to roughly $1,550 per FEU and East Coast rates near $3,260, erasing September’s brief spike. Softer ocean prices typically translate into less urgency to expedite boxes inland and more measured gate moves — a mix that can pressure drayage spot rates and transload turns in Southern California and the Southeast.
For now, rail remains a buffer. Intermodal loadings rose 6.7% year over year in the week ended October 4, reflecting the tail of earlier frontloaded volumes still moving inland. But if port throughput continues to decelerate as projected, rail ramps and domestic container programs should feel a corresponding downshift later in October and November, tightening the pipeline of transload and truckload freight that typically follows.
Costs are at least moving the right way for carriers. The national on-highway diesel average fell to $3.711 per gallon for the week of October 6. And the Energy Information Administration this week boosted its US oil production outlook while warning that oversupply is likely to weigh on crude prices — a backdrop that could keep diesel trending lower into year-end, cushioning margins even as volumes soften.
Parcel and LTL bellwethers are flashing caution that mirrors the import picture. JPMorgan downgraded FedEx on Wednesday, citing weaker freight fundamentals and risks around its LTL business, while also trimming its UPS target. That skepticism arrives as FedEx finalizes leadership for a planned freight spin-off, underscoring how carriers are positioning for a slower-growth environment and persistent customer pushback on price. For truckers, it’s another signal that pricing power will be hard-won absent a material rebound in freight flows.
What it means on the ground for trucking: expect leaner import-led demand in key gateways (Los Angeles/Long Beach, Savannah, New York/New Jersey) through the holidays; steadier but potentially fading intermodal pull as port volumes cycle down; and a more competitive spot environment for drayage and short-haul port work. For long-haul van and LTL, many of the boxes that would normally arrive in late Q4 are already on the floor, tempering seasonal uplift and keeping the focus on contract retention, service wins and network balance.
The wild cards are policy and timing. Any change to tariff effective dates could shift cargo timing at the margins, while retailer promotions and returns flows will influence December trucking demand. But barring a surprise, the more durable levers for carriers this quarter look tactical: protect density in import-heavy lanes, lean into transload partnerships that stabilize volume, and lock in fuel savings while the market offers them.
Sources: FreightWaves, Reuters, Association of American Railroads, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Barron’s, Wigo Logistics
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