Less-than-truckload carriers just notched a new high in third-quarter pricing, even as freight demand stayed lackluster. The latest AFS/TD Cowen index readings behind today’s report point to disciplined yield management — not volume — as the engine of LTL revenue in 2025. For shippers, it means the cost of moving smaller, lighter pallets remains sticky at precisely the moment budgets are looking for relief.
Fresh data released Tuesday, Oct. 14, underscores the dynamic heading into peak season: in Q3, average LTL shipment weight fell 7.4% year over year, but cost per shipment slipped only 0.7% — clear evidence that carriers protected yield while networks handled lighter freight. Looking ahead, AFS/TD Cowen projects the LTL rate-per-pound index to hold elevated in Q4 (64.8% above the 2018 baseline), with a “muted” peak as carriers continue to prioritize profitable freight over raw tonnage.
On the demand side, September’s Cass Transportation Index shows a market that’s still uneven. Total shipments rose 2.5% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis but were down 5.4% from a year ago. Cass also flags relative strength in truckload and continued softness in LTL volumes — a sign that some shippers are consolidating into TL where rates allow, further pressuring LTL networks to lean on pricing discipline to defend margins.
Spot market signals are equally mixed. DAT’s Oct. 14 update pegs the Logistics Managers’ Index at 57.4 for September, but transportation utilization slid to 50.0 — unusually weak for that month — suggesting carriers are adding only just enough work to keep assets busy. Flatbed linehaul averages sat a touch above $2.07 per mile last week, up modestly year over year, while capacity still slightly outpaces demand.
Main Street sentiment isn’t providing a tailwind either. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped two points in September to 98.8, and its Uncertainty Index jumped to 100 — the fourth-highest reading in more than five decades. For carriers and 3PLs hunting incremental shipments, that mix points to cautious order books and more short-cycle tendering as small firms watch cash and delay restocking.
What it means for trucking: LTL’s pricing outperformance remains a story of discipline over demand. Until industrial output and small-business confidence translate into firmer freight, expect LTL carriers to defend yields through tighter lane curation, accessorial enforcement and contract stickiness. Shippers can fight back by engineering density (right-sizing packaging, consolidating pickups), tightening pickup-ready and appointment compliance to avoid fees, and testing mode shifts on lanes where TL remains cost-advantaged. Carriers, meanwhile, should continue to invest in mix and network quality — the data shows that’s what’s supporting margins while volumes lag.
Sources: FreightWaves, AFS Logistics/TD Cowen (via PR Newswire), Cass Information Systems, DAT Freight & Analytics, NFIB
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