Price momentum returned to trucking in October as the Logistics Managers’ Index held steady at 57.4, but the mix shifted decisively toward transportation. Utilization jumped and prices accelerated while capacity growth eased, breaking a two‑month stretch in which capacity had outpaced pricing. Inventory levels slipped into slight contraction, a sign that goods began moving downstream after being staged earlier this fall. For carriers, that combination typically means better odds of securing rate improvement—particularly on retail‑destined lanes—while shippers should expect tighter service in pockets even if the broader market remains far from a full‑blown crunch.
Under the hood, October’s LMI data showed transportation prices advancing to 61.7 and transportation utilization up to 57.3, while transportation capacity growth edged down to 54.5. The researchers also called out a sharper upturn late in the month and stronger pressure from downstream retailers versus upstream producers—classic hallmarks of holiday freight finally making its way to store shelves and doorsteps.
Fresh weekly spot market figures point to a market that’s firming unevenly. During the week of Oct. 26–Nov. 1 (Week 44), load posts on DAT’s marketplace dipped 6% and truck posts fell 9%, but carriers still faced higher fuel bills as the national diesel average rose about 10 cents to $3.72 a gallon. Linehaul spot rates eased across van, reefer and flatbed in that same week, underscoring that October’s pricing tailwind is showing up faster in contracted, retail‑heavy freight than in the broader spot market.
Macro demand signals were mixed heading into November. U.S. manufacturing contracted again in October, with ISM’s factory PMI slipping to 48.7 as new orders and production softened—headwinds that limit upstream freight. That said, supplier delivery times lengthened and price pressures persisted, a combination that often nudges shippers to secure capacity earlier for critical goods even when overall volumes are subdued.
Two other near‑term reads that matter for fleets and brokers: the for‑hire tonnage picture and services activity. ATA’s for‑hire truck tonnage index—heavily weighted to contract freight—indicated October tonnage running above September on a not‑seasonally‑adjusted basis, a move consistent with LMI’s report of stronger transportation utilization as seasonal retail moves kicked in. And today’s services sector update is poised to show whether consumer‑facing demand can keep offsetting factory softness through November.
What it means for trucking strategy right now: expect tighter conditions where freight is closest to the consumer, but don’t count on a broad rate breakout yet. Retail‑oriented, short‑haul and regional contract lanes look best positioned for incremental gains in Q4, while long‑haul spot remains choppy week to week. Carriers should lean into retail DC pull‑downs and time‑sensitive replenishment, keep a close eye on diesel surcharges after last week’s jump, and prioritize network density over stretching for marginal spot loads. Shippers, meanwhile, can still capitalize on abundant capacity in manufacturing‑heavy origin markets, but should lock in coverage early for peak e‑commerce flows and be prepared for localized price firmness where tender rejections tick up.
Bottom line: The LMI’s October read confirms that price growth has re‑taken the lead from capacity growth, but the turn is narrow and seasonal for now. With spot trends still subdued and factories under pressure, the holiday run will be more of a targeted squeeze than a market‑wide surge—rewarding those who match assets and contracts to the lanes where consumers are actually spending.
Sources: FreightWaves, Logistics Managers’ Index (the-lmi.com), AJOT (DAT Week 44), Reuters (ISM Manufacturing PMI), ISM
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