The brief spring in the U.S. freight market’s step didn’t last through summer. New analysis shows the third quarter gave back the second quarter’s progress as shipment volumes fell and pricing power shifted unevenly across lanes and modes — a setback that carriers say they felt in their order books and balance sheets. FreightWaves reports that Q3 truck freight volumes slipped even as overall shipper spend proved sticky, underscoring a market where capacity is still washing out but demand hasn’t recovered enough to lift all boats. ([]())
Fresh high-frequency indicators from the opening days of November paint a mixed — but informative — picture for operations and pricing. The Logistics Managers’ Index for October, released November 4, held steady at 57.4, with transportation utilization and prices accelerating while transportation capacity expansion cooled. That combination suggests freight is moving a bit faster into peak season and carriers have marginally more leverage than they did a month ago, even as warehousing metrics soften and inventory levels edge down.
The macro demand backdrop remains two-speed. ISM’s October Services PMI rose back into firmer expansion at 52.4 on November 5, signaling resilient activity in consumer-facing sectors that drive parcel and final‑mile volume. By contrast, ISM’s Manufacturing PMI slid to 48.7 on November 3, marking deeper contraction in factory‑tied freight that typically fills dry van and flatbed networks. For truckers, this split implies steadier pulls on retail replenishment and e‑commerce lanes, while industrial corridors and building‑related flows continue to underperform.
On the spot board, the first week of November looked soft. DAT data for Oct. 26–Nov. 1 (Week 44) show load posts down 6% week over week and linehaul rates lower across all three equipment types, while truck posts fell for a third straight week — a sign that some capacity is idling or exiting even as demand eases. Average broker‑to‑carrier linehaul settled around $1.70 for vans, $2.08 for reefers and $2.42 for flatbed. The same week also brought a nearly 10‑cent jump in diesel to $3.72 on many racks, pressure that showed up at the pump.
Fuel costs have indeed turned higher into November. EIA’s national on‑highway diesel average climbed to $3.753 per gallon for the week of November 3, up 3.5 cents from the prior week, with the Midwest seeing the sharpest weekly increase and the West Coast still carrying the heaviest absolute burden. For carriers living off the spread between all‑in rates and variable costs, that incremental rise is meaningful — especially when spot prices are drifting sideways to down.
Equipment order books reinforce the caution. Preliminary October Class 8 net orders came in at roughly 24,300 units, up from September but well below typical October intake and down year over year — a signal that many fleets continue to defer replacement and expansion until freight and pricing conditions improve. That restraint should continue to bleed capacity from the for‑hire side into early 2026, slowly firming rate floors if demand doesn’t slip further.
What it means for carriers: Q3’s reversal confirms that this recovery will be uneven. Near‑term, the combination of slightly tighter transportation capacity (LMI), firmer services activity (ISM), and rising fuel suggests margin pressure for spot‑exposed carriers unless they manage fuel efficiently and concentrate on lanes where utilization is improving. Watch retail‑oriented and e‑commerce markets for the best peak‑season traction, keep an eye on factory‑linked networks for lingering softness, and use week‑to‑week rate and load‑to‑truck signals to sequence trucks where utilization is picking up. If new‑truck ordering stays muted and exits continue, 2026 capacity could be materially leaner — but the next few months will still demand tight cost control and disciplined pricing.
Sources: FreightWaves, Institute for Supply Management, Logistics Managers’ Index, U.S. Energy Information Administration, AJOT/DAT Freight & Analytics, AJOT/FTR Transportation Intelligence
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