Retailers are signaling that the container tide is ebbing faster than it rose. After frontloading goods ahead of tariff deadlines, importers expect the typical year-end cooldown to give way to deeper year-over-year declines in early 2026 — a shift that will ripple from port gates to domestic trucking networks. New projections from the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker point to a pronounced step-down through the holidays and into the first quarter, a view echoed by the latest trade updates.
How steep is the downshift? Final data show U.S. ports handled 2.1 million TEUs in September, with October projected near 2.0 million. NRF now pegs November at about 1.85 million TEUs and December near 1.75 million — both the slowest months since early 2023 — as retailers work through inventory already staged for the holidays. The full-year 2025 tally is forecast around 24.9 million TEUs, roughly 2%–3% below 2024. Looking ahead, Global Port Tracker projects the retreat to deepen in early 2026, with January down about 11% year over year, February off 9%, and March sliding 16%–17%.
Paradoxically, ocean spot prices just ticked higher. Carriers executed November 1 general rate increases and are trimming capacity to stabilize yields heading into contract season. Xeneta’s latest read puts average Far East–US West Coast spot rates at $2,756/FEU and Far East–US East Coast at $3,492/FEU, with the East/West spread narrowing to a one‑year low as West Coast rates climbed more sharply. Drewry’s World Container Index rose about 8% this week, with Shanghai–Los Angeles up 9% to $2,647/FEU — gains analysts caution could fade without further capacity discipline.
Inside the U.S., the import slowdown is starting to show up on rails. Intermodal traffic for the week ending November 1 totaled 269,719 containers and trailers, down 6.4% from the same week a year ago — an early sign that fewer boxes at the coasts are translating into lighter inland flows.
Fuel adds another crosscurrent. The national average price of diesel stood at $3.729 per gallon on November 8, up from $3.686 a week ago, nudging carrier operating costs higher just as post‑peak volumes soften.
For trucking operators, the message is to re-time capacity and bids. Port drayage providers should expect longer gaps between vessel calls and fewer dual transactions as import boxes thin out after December. Transload volumes out of Southern California and other gateways are likely to ease in January–March, increasing competition for headhaul freight and pushing some carriers toward regional and dedicated work to keep tractors utilized. Intermodal marketing companies should prepare for more empty repositioning and selective price pressure on domestic boxes if rail volumes lag.
Yet the domestic demand picture isn’t uniformly weak. NRF now expects U.S. holiday retail sales to top $1 trillion for the first time, with growth of roughly 3.7%–4.2% versus last year — more evidence that much of the merchandise has already been staged and will move through middle‑ and last‑mile networks rather than through ports. Carriers with e‑commerce exposure may see steadier volumes through December even as import-dependent lanes cool.
What to do now:
– Recalibrate driver and chassis deployment at ports for a softer Q1 and build flexibility for blank sailings and bunching that can compress work into fewer, busier days.
– Tighten surcharge management and fuel hedging where possible given the recent diesel uptick.
– For contract bids, expect ocean GRIs to make shippers cost‑sensitive inland; emphasize reliability and turn‑time performance where import volumes are thinning.
– Lean into domestic retail flows — parcel injection, store replenishment, and returns — as holiday spending shifts freight away from ocean gateways and into distribution networks.
Sources: FreightWaves, National Retail Federation, WorkBoat, Xeneta, India Shipping News, Association of American Railroads, AAA, Reuters
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