Retail buyers are signaling that the containerized import slowdown won’t just linger into the new year — it’s set to deepen. The latest Global Port Tracker outlook shows year-over-year declines accelerating through the first quarter of 2026, a warning shot for domestic trucking networks that depend on steady seaborne inflows to feed drayage, intermodal and long-haul freight.
How steep is the near-term fade? After a September tally of 2.1 million TEUs — down 9.3% from August and 7.4% from a year earlier — the Tracker pegs October at 1.99 million TEUs, November at 1.85 million and December at 1.75 million. If realized, November–December would be the slowest stretch of 2025, with December at its weakest since March 2023.
The soft patch doesn’t end with the holidays. NRF and Hackett Associates forecast January 2026 at 1.98 million TEUs (down 11.1% y/y), February at 1.85 million (down 9%) and March at 1.79 million (down 16.7%). For calendar 2025, total imports are now projected at 24.9 million TEUs, 2.3% below last year — a downshift that will be most visible to truckers as fewer containers roll off ships in Q1.
Two forces are distorting the comps: last year’s strike worries that pulled cargo into late 2024, and this year’s tariff-driven frontloading that pulled cargo into midyear 2025. Both effects leave a hole in the pipeline now. For carriers and brokers, that translates to less drayage turn pressure at the gates, fewer transloads and a thinner intermodal handoff as the calendar flips.
Ocean pricing confirms a market losing steam even as carriers push for hikes. Drewry’s World Container Index rose for a fourth straight week to $1,959 per FEU as of November 6 — with Shanghai–Los Angeles up 9% week over week to $2,647 and Shanghai–New York up 8% to $3,837 — but analysts caution the bounce looks tactical and tied to early-November GRIs rather than demand strength.
Xeneta’s weekly read shows similar trans-Pacific levels and, importantly, a trim in offered capacity on key east-west trades over the past month. Average spot rates stood at $2,756 FEU to the U.S. West Coast and $3,492 to the East Coast, while carriers adjusted supply — a sign they’re trying to keep rates afloat while bookings ease.
What this means on the ground: port trucking should anticipate shorter queues and slower container turns in early 2026; transload operators may see more idle time and tighter margins as inbound flow tapers; and rail-intermodal lanes that rely on coastal import feed will likely run lighter. For asset-based fleets, contract calendars could open a window to rebalance mix toward domestic manufacturing, automotive and building-products freight where lead times are steadier. For brokers, tighter import-driven spot opportunities argue for deeper routing-guide work with retail customers to protect primary awards while imports are scarce.
The near-term playbook is pragmatic: watch booking and rate indicators rather than headline TEU counts; flex drayage and transload capacity to match fewer vessel calls; and use the lull to renegotiate chassis dwell, detention, and free-time terms before the next demand spike. If tariffs or policy shifts trigger another frontload later in 2026, the carriers best positioned will be those that kept driver utilization healthy while ports were quiet.
Sources: FreightWaves, National Retail Federation, Xeneta, India Shipping News, Shipping Telegraph, Maritime Magazine
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