Trucking executives are entering mid-November with little appetite for expansion. Fresh auction data from Ritchie Bros. shows the used equipment market is still digesting a wave of repossessions and liquidation inventory, a dynamic that’s undermining confidence even as some operating metrics stabilize. Three‑year‑old 53-foot dry van trailers that fetched roughly $48,000 at the 2021 peak are now changing hands for under $20,000, with banks selling the bulk of late‑model trailers moving across Ritchie’s blocks. Dealer lots remain heavy, with Class 8 inventories exceeding 90,000 units, and new‑order activity near stall speed — conditions that collectively sap carriers’ willingness to commit fresh capital.
Why it matters: equipment prices and inventories are powerful read‑throughs on supply. The glut of late‑model gear — much of it tied to bankruptcies and repossessions — is a signal that capacity remains too high relative to freight. In that environment, carriers’ balance sheets benefit from cheaper replacement assets, but rate power typically lags until enough capacity exits. Ritchie’s third‑quarter sales mix, where the vast majority of transportation units were repossessed, underscores how credit stress is still shaking out on the smallest and most vulnerable fleets.
Spot market indicators this week reinforce the same message: the floor is forming, but it’s a low one. DAT’s latest update shows dry van load‑to‑truck ratios slipping to 5.83 in early November as equipment posts rose and load posts fell, dragging national van linehaul rates down to an average of $1.69 per mile. In Atlanta, Houston and Chicago — three of the country’s most watched hubs — outbound volumes retreated week over week and rates eased by around a penny a mile. For carriers trying to cover fixed costs on depreciating assets, that’s not the inflection they were hoping for.
Rate boards elsewhere look similar. Across the week of November 2–7, broker‑to‑carrier spot rates averaged $2.06 per mile for dry van (down a cent), $2.45 for reefer (up a cent) and $2.41 for flatbed (unchanged), with DAT load posts holding near a 16‑week average while truck posts edged higher. The pattern — steady loads, more trucks — points to lingering oversupply that blunts any seasonal pricing lift.
FreightWaves’ SONAR Pricing Power Index this week held at 45, a notch below “balanced,” reflecting modestly firmer spot rates and tender rejections but not enough momentum to swing negotiating leverage back to carriers. The three‑month outlook sits higher at 60, predicated on continued capacity attrition into the holidays, yet that scenario still competes with a soft demand backdrop.
Demand signals from Main Street aren’t doing the truckload sector any favors. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.2 in October, with owners citing weaker sales and profits and persistent hiring difficulties. Small firms are critical freight generators for parcel, LTL and truckload alike; softer sentiment there typically translates into cautious ordering and fewer loads on the margin.
The takeaway for fleets: treat the current discount on trailers and late‑model tractors as a double‑edged sword. Yes, assets are cheaper, and OEM backlogs are thinner. But until spot fundamentals show sustained tightening — not just weekly noise — adding capacity risks prolonging the imbalance. For now, the playbook looks defensive: keep powder dry, prioritize contracted freight where it’s attainable, and use today’s equipment pricing to right‑size, not supersize. The industry’s next real tailwind likely arrives only after more capacity leaves and demand — whether from holiday replenishment or a broader macro upturn — proves it can stick.
Sources: FreightWaves, Yahoo Finance, DAT Freight & Analytics, American Journal of Transportation (AJOT), Blue Book Services, SONAR, NFIB
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