2025 was supposed to be the year trucking found its footing again. Instead, carriers are still grinding through a stubborn downcycle marked by thin margins and little pricing power. A new industry snapshot underscores why: the broader economy remains the No. 1 worry across fleets and owner-operators, and three years into a freight slump, rates and tonnage have not meaningfully broken higher while operating costs continue to climb. That combination has many operators focused on defense — pruning networks, sweating assets and delaying growth bets.
Near-term market reads reinforce that caution. DAT’s latest weekly update shows spot capacity loosening into November as load posts fell 4% and equipment posts rose 6%, pushing the dry van load-to-truck ratio down to 5.83. National van linehaul averaged $1.69 per mile last week — a hair below the 10-year norm even as it sits slightly above last year — and volumes slipped across cornerstone metros like Atlanta, Houston, Chicago and Dallas. The upshot: routing guides remain mostly intact, and when freight does spill to spot, there’s still a bench of trucks ready to take it.
Consumer demand is the swing factor for the remainder of fourth quarter, and the latest read is encouraging if not explosive. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported that October retail sales posted gains both month over month and year over year, signaling households are still spending into the holidays. For truckload, that points to a floor rather than a boom: more consistent goods flow through distribution networks, but not enough acceleration to force broad spot-rate breakouts or widespread tender rejections.
Truckstop and FTR’s Spot Market Insights echo the theme of “stable but soft.” In the current week, total spot rates slipped 0.3% from the same week last year and sit about 8% below the five-year average. Dry van loads nudged up 1.7% week over week, but van rates are still 14% under their five-year seasonal benchmark. Reefer and flatbed painted the same mixed picture — selective tightness, but nothing that suggests an enduring turn yet. For fleets, that means bid discipline and lane-by-lane profitability still matter more than chasing fleeting lifts.
Weather may be the wild card over the next two weeks. An early Arctic blast and lake-effect bands have already produced record-early flurries along the Carolina coast and advisory-level snow across parts of Michigan — conditions that tend to carve out hyperlocal imbalances as trucks slow, reload cycles stretch, and short-haul rates pop around the Great Lakes and Appalachians. Expect sporadic, lane-specific tightness rather than a national capacity crunch as carriers recalibrate networks around these systems.
So what actually moves the needle from “stabilizing” to “recovering”? The industry’s own playbook offers clues. First, a consumer goods run that lasts beyond holiday promotions would be catalytic, improving warehouse turns and outbound TL from major DC markets. Second, more durable industrial activity — absent lately — would lift flatbed and Midwest van rates. Third, additional capacity rationalization could finally translate to pricing power, but recent weekly reads show that process remains gradual. In other words, absent a demand surprise, 2025’s road to balance likely looks less like a snapback and more like a slow grade with weather, retail promotions and micro-regional shifts determining the day-to-day ride.
For carriers, the operational takeaway is clear: keep leaning into lanes where service wins share; protect network density; and avoid overcommitting on long-haul exposure where intermodal and price-sensitive shippers continue to siphon volume. For shippers, the current window remains favorable to lock in commitments — but with flexibility for mid-cycle refreshes if winter volatility or late-quarter promotions ripple through key markets.
Sources: FreightWaves, DAT Freight & Analytics, National Retail Federation, Truckstop/FTR, National Weather Service
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