Hapag-Lloyd’s latest update captures a market that’s moving more boxes at lower prices — a mix that cut profitability even as volumes rose. Through the first nine months of 2025, the carrier lifted 10.2 million TEUs, up 9% year over year, but average freight rates slid to $1,397 per TEU and group profit fell to $946 million on EBITDA and EBIT margins of 17% and 6%, respectively. Management narrowed full‑year guidance to $3.1–$3.6 billion for EBITDA and $600 million–$1.1 billion for EBIT, citing volatile demand, network transition costs tied to the new Gemini cooperation with Maersk, and congestion-related expense.
External reporting aligns with that picture. Hapag-Lloyd said nine‑month net profit was €846 million and trimmed the top end of its EBIT outlook, pointing to security disruptions in the Red Sea and shifting U.S. trade policies that have whipsawed freight rates. The company nonetheless flagged early cost benefits from the Gemini network despite up‑front spending.
FreightWaves’ coverage adds color on where the pressure is coming from: liner revenue improved on higher liftings — particularly on East‑West trades — but yields remained under strain, and Gemini start‑up and congestion costs weighed on margins. The article also notes Hapag-Lloyd’s Asia volumes jumped this year as the Gemini service bedded in, underscoring that the issue isn’t demand so much as price and cost.
For U.S. trucking, the more consequential story is what happens next at the ports and inland ramps. A fresh read from Cass shows October shipments fell to their weakest October since 2009, down 7.8% year over year and 4.3% from September, with the report warning that November could register a double‑digit y/y decline if normal seasonality holds. Cass points to shippers consolidating into truckload to avoid higher LTL pricing, even as overall demand cools. That combination typically means choppy drayage volumes and fewer high‑urgency inland moves as the holiday pull‑forward fades.
Rail confirms the deceleration on the intermodal leg: U.S. intermodal units fell 8.7% year over year in the week ended November 8, even as carloads were basically flat. For intermodal‑reliant truckers — especially those tied to West Coast door moves and inland ramps — that points to softer turn counts and more empty repositioning risk through late November.
Ocean spot prices, meanwhile, are easing into mid‑November, removing one of the few supports for liner margins and reinforcing the idea that port throughput will trend lower near‑term. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 5% this week to $1,859 per FEU, with Transpacific spot rates down double digits to both Los Angeles and New York after short‑lived early‑November GRIs. Softer ocean pricing typically translates into fewer urgent transloads and more time‑deferrable inland shipments — another headwind for premium drayage and expedited truckload.
Hapag-Lloyd is trying to shape the cost side of that equation. It says the Gemini network is delivering early savings and improved reliability, and the carrier plans to add up to 22 sub‑5,000‑TEU ships to sharpen feeder connectivity. For U.S. carriers, tighter schedules can reduce yard dwell and chassis friction, but if fewer boxes are arriving overall, improved reliability will mostly help with planning — not necessarily with filling tractors.
Spot truckload pricing reflects that “steady‑to‑soft” backdrop. In the week of November 2–7, national average van rates sat at $2.06 per mile (7‑day broker‑to‑carrier), reefers at $2.45 and flatbeds at $2.41, with load postings broadly stable — a sign that peak‑season surges are muted and procurement is cautious.
What to watch if you’re a motor carrier or drayage operator:
– Vessel calls and blank sailings into LA/LB and New York–New Jersey as a leading indicator for December yard turns.
– Intermodal weekly units (AAR) for a read on ramp fluidity and door‑to‑door opportunities.
– Ocean spot rates; continued slippage would confirm a slower inbound cadence and fewer high‑margin expedites.
– Gemini’s reliability gains; more predictable gating can let fleets trim buffer time and redeploy drivers more efficiently, even in a softer volume environment.
The bottom line: Hapag-Lloyd’s earnings compression is another signal that the post‑front‑load lull has arrived. For trucking, that means prioritizing cost control, calibrating capacity toward contract freight that sticks through December, and using improved ocean schedule reliability to tighten driver and chassis turns — because the volume tailwind that buoyed summer and early fall has faded for now.
Sources: FreightWaves, Hapag-Lloyd, Reuters, Cass Information Systems, Association of American Railroads, Drewry (via MFAME), DAT Freight & Analytics
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