A spirited debate between FreightWaves’ Craig Fuller and DAT’s Ken Adamo over whether the freight downturn has truly bottomed — and how tighter credentialing of commercial drivers could reshape capacity — now has new stakes. In the past 72 hours, a federal appeals court halted the U.S. Department of Transportation’s interim rule restricting non‑domiciled CDLs, even as October freight flow data flashed fresh weakness. The juxtaposition underscores the core question confronting fleets and shippers: does supply tighten first, or does demand recover at all?
On the demand side, October’s Cass Freight Index reported shipments down 4.3% month over month (seasonally adjusted -2.1%) and 7.8% year over year — the weakest October since 2009. Cass also flagged a likely 10% y/y decline in November if normal seasonality holds. Total freight spending slipped just 0.2% y/y as higher rates in some pockets offset fewer moves, and the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 3% y/y, reflecting mix shifts as shippers consolidate LTL into truckload amid ongoing LTL price discipline. In short: volumes are deteriorating even as certain rates hold a firmer floor.
For fleets weighing capital plans, the caution is visible in new‑equipment signals. Industry trackers said North American Class 8 orders in October were roughly 24,500 units — down about 21% from a year ago — with manufacturers and carriers pointing to weak freight, tariff uncertainty and lean margins as reasons to pause. Analysts at FTR added Thursday that order books for both trucks and railcars remain soft, a sign that freight companies are delaying investment until there’s clarity on volumes and costs.
The supply side picture became murkier this week. The D.C. Circuit first issued an administrative stay on Nov. 10 and then, on Nov. 13, granted an emergency stay of FMCSA’s interim final rule that would have sharply limited eligibility for non‑domiciled CDLs. FMCSA has since told states they are not prohibited from issuing non‑domiciled CDLs and CLPs under pre‑IFR rules while the case proceeds — a process that could take months. Practically, that pauses one potential accelerant of capacity attrition that some market bulls thought might tighten the spot market in early 2026.
At the same time, enforcement pressure hasn’t vanished. On Nov. 12, USDOT said California would revoke approximately 17,000 non‑domiciled CDLs identified through a federal audit — a move that, if carried out at scale, could meaningfully dent driver supply in that state. The subsequent court stay injects uncertainty into the timing and scope of those revocations and how states proceed while litigation plays out. For carriers, the legal overhang complicates recruiting and retention plans; for shippers, it tempers near‑term expectations that rule‑driven exits will quickly flip pricing power.
So where does this leave the Fuller‑Adamo divide? New data lends weight to Adamo’s caution on the demand backdrop: shipment volumes are slipping, equipment orders point to defensive capex, and early November spot trends softened after a brief pre‑tariff pull‑forward, according to the Cass report. Yet Fuller’s argument — that regulatory and enforcement dynamics could ultimately thin capacity faster than expected — remains in play if state‑level audits and targeted revocations proceed even as the broader rule is paused. The market, in other words, may not get a single, clean catalyst; instead, it could see rolling, localized capacity reductions collide with a still‑fragile freight economy.
What to watch next: (1) the D.C. Circuit’s schedule and any guidance on how states handle non‑domiciled CDLs during the stay; (2) November’s Cass print to confirm whether the predicted 10% y/y shipment decline materializes; and (3) OEM order boards and large‑fleet budgets for 1H26, which will signal whether carriers are bracing for another year of survival mode or preparing for a turn. Until one of those needles moves decisively, shippers likely retain leverage in most lanes, while carriers with dense, high‑service dedicated networks and strong contract compliance remain best positioned to weather the grind.
Sources: FreightWaves, FMCSA, Overdrive, Cass Information Systems, Yahoo Finance, Transport Topics, Commercial Carrier Journal
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