At a spirited “Great Freight Debate” this week, FreightWaves founder Craig Fuller and DAT’s chief of strategy Ken Adamo offered sharply different diagnoses of a trucking market still searching for a bottom. Fuller argued that capacity is quietly tightening and spot rates are “melting up” in fits and starts, while Adamo countered that demand remains too soft for enforcement actions to meaningfully move pricing. The session, moderated by transportation attorney Matthew Leffler, unfolded Thursday, Nov. 13.
Within hours, the rules of the road shifted again. California confirmed it is rescinding roughly 17,000 non‑domiciled CDLs after a federal audit flagged licenses that extended beyond drivers’ lawful presence—giving affected drivers 60 days’ notice before expiration. The move immediately raised questions about regional capacity, especially in drayage and intrastate haulage tied to port complexes. Federal documents show the review stemmed from a September program finding, with FMCSA noting California’s corrective steps in a Nov. 13 filing.
But broader federal restrictions on non‑domiciled licensing are now paused. On Nov. 10, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit issued an administrative stay preventing FMCSA’s interim rule from taking effect; on Nov. 13, the court granted an emergency stay that is expected to hold for months while litigation proceeds. In plain terms: states can continue issuing and renewing non‑domiciled CDLs under pre‑rule standards, although jurisdictions under specific corrective action plans must honor those plans. That legal about‑face tempers predictions of an immediate nationwide capacity shock—even as it leaves carriers navigating significant compliance uncertainty.
The enforcement storyline isn’t just courtroom drama—it’s shaping day‑to‑day freight flows. ITS Logistics’ November Port/Rail Ramp Index reported port and rail operations are “normal” despite declining import and export volumes, highlighting that regulatory volatility (tariffs, English‑language enforcement, and non‑domiciled licensing) could change the outlook quickly. Normalized port fluidity implies that any California‑centric driver attrition may be absorbed in the near term, but shippers should expect uneven impacts by lane if additional revocations or state‑level actions emerge.
The financial backdrop remains unforgiving. A fresh batch of Chapter 11 filings—12 more carriers in October—illustrates how thin liquidity and tighter lender appetites are still culling capacity from the bottom up. That attrition supports Fuller’s argument that supply is eroding, yet the pace remains choppy enough to validate Adamo’s caution: absent stronger freight demand, rate relief for carriers is likely to be episodic and seasonal rather than structural.
Why this matters now: the clash between enforcement and economics will decide who gets paid this peak season. If California’s 60‑day license expirations ripple through local capacity, spot pockets could flare around Los Angeles/Long Beach and inland feeder markets—even as the national rule is on hold. Brokers should prepare for tighter coverage windows and higher fall‑through on West Coast dray and transload freight; carriers with mixed workforces should audit CDL timelines and English‑language compliance to avoid surprise outages; and shippers should lock in holiday surges early while lanes remain fluid. In short, the industry is moving from a pure demand story to a policy‑sensitive market where court calendars and compliance audits can swing pricing as much as tender counts.
The Fuller–Adamo split captures that tension. If the court ultimately upholds FMCSA’s rule or more states follow California’s lead, attrition could accelerate and push the market toward equilibrium faster than demand alone would. If not—and if consumer volumes stay tepid—the oversupply Adamo cites may linger, keeping the recovery lumpy and localized. For now, the only constant is uncertainty, and the winners this quarter will be the fleets and freight buyers quickest to adjust to the regulatory scoreboard as it changes.
Sources: FreightWaves, Yahoo Finance, Associated Press, FMCSA, Overdrive, ITS Logistics, National Law Review
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