A candid market panel at Trimble’s Insight conference in New Orleans this week framed trucking’s stubborn downturn in stark terms: freight demand remains muted and the driver population is edging lower, leaving carriers waiting on a catalyst that hasn’t arrived. The session — featuring FreightWaves’ Craig Fuller, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Lee Klaskow and MIT’s Angela Acocella — pointed to demand shortfalls and policy volatility as reasons the cycle has dragged on.
New numbers in the past 48 hours back that up. DAT Freight & Analytics reported that October truckload volumes declined across all major equipment types, the first time in 2025 that van, reefer and flatbed indices were down both month over month and year over year. DAT’s team also warned that the traditional holiday peak is “virtually non‑existent” this year as shippers work through inventory pulled in earlier to hedge tariff risk. For carriers that were counting on late‑Q4 lift, that’s a sobering signal.
Costs are moving the wrong way, too. The DOE/EIA on-highway diesel average rose to $3.868 per gallon for the week of November 17, the fourth straight increase and the highest level since mid‑2024. Rising pump prices tighten already‑thin margins for small fleets and owner‑operators whose fuel surcharges lag or whose mix is heavy spot.
Imports illustrate why truckload demand feels light despite busy ports earlier in the year. The Port of Los Angeles said Tuesday it handled 848,431 TEUs in October and remains up about 2% year to date — but loaded imports fell versus last year and officials emphasized that retailers front‑loaded holiday goods to get ahead of tariff uncertainty. That timing shift pulled freight forward, leaving fewer late‑season loads for long‑haul carriers even as costs rise.
Put together, the picture that emerged at Trimble — softer volume and a shrinking driver pool — is colliding with fresh, unfavorable near‑term math. Weak spot opportunities into peak season (DAT), higher diesel (EIA) and earlier‑than‑normal import cycles (Port of LA) all point to a near‑term grind, not a quick snapback. For carriers, that argues for tighter cost control, disciplined lane selection and aggressive fuel management while watching for the first credible signs of a demand inflection rather than betting on one.
Strategically, the market’s setup can still turn quickly once inventories normalize or a policy catalyst hits. But the newest data says the turn is not here yet. Until it is, carriers with sticky contract freight, dense regional networks and the ability to pass through fuel are positioned to outlast the lull; those leaning on volatile long‑haul spot will need to conserve cash and keep powder dry for the eventual upcycle.
Sources: FreightWaves, DAT Freight & Analytics, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Port of Los Angeles
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