Introduction
As of November 17, 2025, U.S. spot freight remained active but uneven across equipment types. National load postings increased 9.1% week over week (w/w), yet truck postings climbed a faster 18.3%, softening negotiating power in many lanes. On a month-over-month (m/m) basis, loads slipped 0.8% while capacity rose 3.5%. Year over year (y/y), the backdrop is notably tighter: loads are up 14.1% and truck postings are down 29.1%. Fuel is a rising headwind—up 0.8% w/w, 3.8% m/m, and 8.5% y/y—adding cost pressure to linehaul economics even where rates are flat.
Spot Rate Trends
Dry van cooled mildly this week: the van load-to-truck ratio (LTR) fell 6.7% w/w and 6.1% m/m, even as it sits 48.6% above last year’s level. Van spot rates dipped 1.0% w/w but are up 1.0% m/m and unchanged y/y. That mix points to short-term relief for shippers as capacity surged onto boards, while the y/y comparison still signals a firmer underlying market than late 2024.
Reefer is the relative “hot” segment. LTR was essentially flat w/w (-0.1%) but rose 3.1% m/m and a hefty 93.0% y/y. Reefer spot rates ticked 0.9% lower w/w but gained 2.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y—consistent with holiday grocery imports and domestic produce flowing into distribution centers ahead of Thanksgiving and early December promotions.
Flatbed softened the most w/w. LTR fell 14.7% from last week and 4.8% m/m, though it remains up 72.5% y/y. Spot rates eased 0.8% w/w but inched up 1.6% m/m and 1.2% y/y. Seasonally slower construction activity and mixed industrial run-rates are showing up in boards, particularly across energy-light regions.
Market Drivers
Consumer demand heading into the holidays remains constructive. The NRF’s October Retail Monitor (released November 10) showed total retail sales ex-auto and gas up 0.6% m/m and 5.0% y/y, helping support dry van volumes into East Coast and Midwest population centers. While growth has cooled versus 2024, the spending pace is still positive, implying steady replenishment and parcel-injection freight through November.
Industrial indicators are less clear near-term. The Federal Reserve’s G.17 industrial production release scheduled for November 18 was delayed, leaving builders and metals shippers without a fresh read; that uncertainty aligns with the w/w downtick in flatbed LTR.
Weather is the key short-run variable by region. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center hazards outlook (valid November 24–30) highlights a classic late-November storm track: heavy mountain snow and high winds in the West, with an Arctic push later in the period raising odds of heavy snow across parts of the Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes; concurrently, a slight risk of heavy precipitation extends from the Southern Plains through the Mississippi and into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Expect intermittent service disruptions, chain controls, and tighter day-of capacity in those corridors.
Ahead of Thanksgiving, several outlets also flag two storm systems early in the travel week, with rain for the southern Plains and Southeast and another system crossing the Pacific Northwest—conditions that typically slow pickup windows and drive short-term rate spikes in affected metros (Houston, Dallas, PNW I‑5).
Hot markets: reefers in the Southeast/Gulf and Mid-Atlantic tied to holiday perishables; select West and Northern Plains lanes could tighten abruptly around winter weather windows next week. Cool markets: flatbed in the South Central and Mountain West outside the energy patch, and general-dry-van in large Midwestern hubs this week where added capacity pressured boards.
Fuel & Costs
The verified dataset pegs national diesel at $3.87/gal as of November 17, 2025. The latest EIA weekly shows U.S. on-highway diesel at $3.868 on November 17, up 3.1 cents w/w and 37.7 cents y/y, corroborating the internal reading. Regional spreads remain wide: West Coast averages $4.559, Midwest $3.913, East Coast $3.856, and Gulf Coast $3.490—all including taxes. These gaps matter for routing and bid strategy, especially on West-to-East long hauls.
On a daily basis, AAA shows the national diesel average near $3.78 on November 19, consistent with last week’s stability narrative for gasoline and only modest movement for diesel into the holiday. Taken together, national fuel is up 0.8% w/w, 3.8% m/m, and 8.5% y/y per the dataset, keeping pressure on all-in costs despite incremental linehaul gains.
Carrier Outlook
Segment view:
- Van: Near-term cool. With loads up w/w but trucks up more, van rates eased 1.0% w/w. Expect a late‑November bounce only in weather‑impacted nodes and high-urgency retail replenishment. Y/y, the 48.6% LTR gain underscores a structurally tighter backdrop versus late 2024.
- Reefer: Hot relative to 2024. LTR +93.0% y/y and spot +1.3% y/y with a 2.2% m/m lift. Southeast, Texas, and Mid‑Atlantic grocer/DC lanes should remain bid‑supportive; watch short-term surges around storm timing next week.
- Flatbed: Cooler w/w and m/m as seasonal construction wanes; still firmer than last year (+72.5% LTR y/y). Best opportunities remain tied to energy, infrastructure, and weather‑driven emergency materials.
Regional takeaways:
- West/Pacific Northwest and Rockies: Elevated diesel (PADD 5) and NOAA’s heavy snow/wind risks point to episodic capacity tightening, higher accessorials, and potential same‑day premiums.
- Plains/Upper Midwest/Great Lakes: Watch mid‑to‑late week Arctic push and snow risk; reefer demand is steady, but van/flatbed could whipsaw around storm tracks and terminal closures.
- Southeast/Gulf: Pre‑holiday perishables plus periodic heavy rain signals tighter reefer spot availability; diesel remains relatively cheaper in PADD 3, supporting margins on short‑haul intra‑Gulf moves.
- Northeast/Mid‑Atlantic: Holiday retail replenishment lends baseline van support; weather risk looks lower until the post‑holiday pattern change, but quick tightening is possible if the early‑week system tracks farther north.
Actionable guidance:
- Reefer carriers: Prioritize Southeast and Mid‑Atlantic retail/DC lanes this week; keep flexibility for West/Northern Plains surge work next week if snow materializes.
- Van fleets: Lean into contract compliance and short‑haul density where boards softened; chase spot only in storm‑impacted metros and final‑mile feeder lanes.
- Flatbed operators: Emphasize energy and infrastructure corridors; expect softer bids on general building materials until weather and project calendars reset.
- All carriers: Refresh fuel surcharge tables weekly; EIA’s U.S. diesel rose to $3.868 on 11/17, and regional spreads remain large—bake PADD‑level deltas into bids.
Spot Rates, Surcharges and Totals (last 6 months)
| Month (2025) | Van Base | Van FSC | Van Total | Reefer Base | Reefer FSC | Reefer Total | Flatbed Base | Flatbed FSC | Flatbed Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun | $1.63 | $0.39 | $2.02 | $1.94 | $0.43 | $2.37 | $2.10 | $0.47 | $2.57 |
| Jul | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.95 | $0.46 | $2.41 | $2.04 | $0.51 | $2.55 |
| Aug | $1.61 | $0.42 | $2.03 | $1.96 | $0.45 | $2.41 | $1.99 | $0.50 | $2.49 |
| Sep | $1.63 | $0.42 | $2.05 | $1.99 | $0.45 | $2.44 | $2.01 | $0.50 | $2.51 |
| Oct | $1.66 | $0.40 | $2.06 | $2.04 | $0.44 | $2.48 | $2.02 | $0.49 | $2.51 |
| Nov | $1.65 | $0.42 | $2.07 | $2.05 | $0.46 | $2.51 | $1.98 | $0.51 | $2.49 |
Bottom line: In the week ending November 17, capacity additions outpaced demand, putting w/w pressure on van and flatbed rates while reefer held up best on m/m and y/y comps. Fuel costs nudged higher and remain materially above last year, with West Coast surcharges particularly punitive. Watch the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest closely next week—early season snow and wind could quickly flip today’s “cool” boards into short‑term hot spots around major corridors.
Sources Consulted: U.S. EIA Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update (diesel levels and regional spreads, 11/17/2025); AAA Fuel Prices (national daily averages, 11/19/2025); NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor (October retail sales, released 11/10/2025); NOAA CPC Week‑2 Hazards Outlook (issued 11/16/2025; valid 11/24–11/30/2025); Fox Weather and Houston Chronicle (pre‑Thanksgiving storm coverage, 11/18–11/19/2025); Federal Reserve G.17 release schedule notice (industrial production release delay, 11/2025).
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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