Introduction
The latest USDOT registration data for the week of November 24–30, 2025 captures the Thanksgiving-shortened period and shows a sharp but seasonal contraction in new filings. Total registrations were 1,929, comprised of 1,767 carriers (91.6% of the mix), 58 brokers (3.0%), and 104 “others” (5.4%). Holiday effects were visible in the day-by-day cadence, with activity front-loaded early in the week and plunging on Thanksgiving Day (November 27) and the following long weekend. This pattern aligns with broad U.S. closures for the federal holiday and reduced business activity, even as consumer demand indicators—especially e‑commerce sales—were heating up during Cyber Week.
Weekly Overview
Week over week, total registrations fell 37.5% from 3,085 in November 17–23 to 1,929 in November 24–30. By category: carriers dropped 38.2% (from 2,859 to 1,767), brokers fell 42.0% (100 to 58), and “others” declined 17.5% (126 to 104). The mix shifted slightly toward “others” while carrier share dipped from 92.7% to 91.6% and broker share from 3.2% to 3.0%. Against the prior four‑week average of about 2,962 filings (Oct 27–Nov 23), the holiday week was down roughly 35%. The daily trajectory underscores the calendar effect: 553 on Monday, 528 Tuesday, 422 Wednesday, then 122 on Thanksgiving, 201 on Friday, 98 Saturday, and just 5 on Sunday. In short, the bulk of activity (nearly 88%) occurred on the three preholiday business days plus Friday.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | 502 | 17 | 34 | 553 |
| 2025-11-25 | 491 | 15 | 22 | 528 |
| 2025-11-26 | 392 | 13 | 17 | 422 |
| 2025-11-27 | 105 | 6 | 11 | 122 |
| 2025-11-28 | 183 | 6 | 12 | 201 |
| 2025-11-29 | 89 | 1 | 8 | 98 |
| 2025-11-30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Week (Start–End) | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-08 – 2025-09-14 | 2962 | 96 | 96 | 3154 |
| 2025-09-15 – 2025-09-21 | 2909 | 84 | 112 | 3105 |
| 2025-09-22 – 2025-09-28 | 3018 | 95 | 108 | 3221 |
| 2025-09-29 – 2025-10-05 | 2959 | 89 | 93 | 3141 |
| 2025-10-06 – 2025-10-12 | 2822 | 89 | 123 | 3034 |
| 2025-10-13 – 2025-10-19 | 2668 | 96 | 102 | 2866 |
| 2025-10-20 – 2025-10-26 | 2800 | 93 | 76 | 2969 |
| 2025-10-27 – 2025-11-02 | 2834 | 86 | 108 | 3028 |
| 2025-11-03 – 2025-11-09 | 2766 | 82 | 121 | 2969 |
| 2025-11-10 – 2025-11-16 | 2562 | 85 | 119 | 2766 |
| 2025-11-17 – 2025-11-23 | 2859 | 100 | 126 | 3085 |
| 2025-11-24 – 2025-11-30 | 1767 | 58 | 104 | 1929 |
State-Level Trends
Top contributors by day reveal a consistent rotation among the largest freight-producing states, with Texas, California, and Florida dominating early in the week and Florida showing surprising resilience late in the week despite the holiday lull.
– Monday (Nov 24): Texas (57), California (52), Florida (40).
– Tuesday (Nov 25): Texas (61), California (47), Georgia (33).
– Wednesday (Nov 26): California (47), Texas (41), Florida (32).
– Thanksgiving Day (Nov 27): California (17), Florida (13), Texas (12).
– Friday (Nov 28): Florida (20), Georgia (15), California (13).
– Saturday (Nov 29): Texas (11), Florida (10), New Jersey (7).
– Sunday (Nov 30): A five‑way tie with one registration each (FL, CA, AZ, BC, CT).
Beyond the big three, New Jersey repeatedly appears in the top tier (especially on Saturday), reflecting its dense freight brokerage and intermodal ecosystem. We also see a trickle of cross-border activity (ON, BC, QC) throughout the week. Taken together, the geographic pattern matches normal seasonality: stronger preholiday filings in the Sun Belt and coastal population centers, then widespread deceleration as offices close.
Market Drivers
Two simultaneous forces shaped the week’s outcome: administrative closures and surging consumer demand.
– Holiday closures and shortened hours: Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, November 27, 2025, is a federal holiday; many government offices and private-sector operations closed outright or ran limited hours on Thursday and into Friday. This helps explain the sharp mid‑to‑late‑week trough in registrations.
– Cyber Week demand surge: While filings slowed, end‑consumer demand accelerated. Adobe and Reuters reported a record U.S. Cyber Monday, with spending on pace for roughly $14.2 billion and strong online sales through the weekend—tailwinds for parcel, final‑mile, and time‑sensitive truckload demand that typically materialize in tenders and load boards with a lag relative to registration activity.
– Fuel costs: Lower or stable diesel prices can support carrier economics at the margin. As of the week of November 24, the national average on‑highway diesel price was about $3.83/gal, down 3.7 cents from the prior week, with most PADDs flat to down; this likely offered modest relief heading into peak holiday shipping.
These drivers send a consistent signal: the November 24–30 drop in new USDOT registrations is overwhelmingly a calendar artifact rather than a deterioration in transportation demand fundamentals. In prior years and cycles, carrier formation often pauses around major holidays and then resumes once normal business hours return.
Outlook
Given the magnitude and distribution of the daily counts, a rebound in early December registrations is likely as back‑office teams return and pent‑up applications process. Watch for:
– Reversion to preholiday run‑rates: The four weeks preceding Thanksgiving averaged roughly 2,962 weekly registrations; a return toward that band in the week of December 1–7 would be consistent with seasonal normalization.
– Carriers vs. brokers: Brokers fell slightly more than carriers week over week (‑42% vs. ‑38%), but both groups should recover as shippers reconcile post‑Cyber Monday order spikes and reposition inventory. If online sales momentum sustains through early December, broker sign‑ups could see a proportionally larger bounce given their role aggregating disparate shipper demand.
– State leadership: Expect Texas, California, and Florida to reassert leadership as filing volumes revert, with New Jersey and Georgia continuing to punch above their weight given their brokerage density and port‑adjacent freight activity.
– Cost backdrop: If diesel prices remain in a stable to slightly declining range, that could encourage marginal entrants to proceed with filings they delayed during the holiday week. Keep an eye on the EIA’s next weekly update for confirmation.
Bottom line: The holiday week produced a mechanically depressed registration print—total filings down 37.5% week over week—without contradicting the improving demand signals visible in consumer spending data. The combination of post‑holiday administrative normalization and robust Cyber Week sales should support a near‑term bounce in new USDOT registrations, with carriers likely reclaiming a share near their preholiday 92–93% of weekly filings and brokers recovering from an outsized holiday pullback.
Sources Consulted: Reuters (Cyber Monday 2025 coverage), Adobe Analytics projections, AP News (Thanksgiving closures), U.S. Energy Information Administration (diesel price update), FederalPay (federal holiday date).
This article was prepared exclusively for truckstopinsider.com.
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