Introduction
In the week of December 1–7, 2025, new USDOT registrations rebounded to 3,000 following the Thanksgiving lull a week earlier. Carriers dominated the mix, and midweek filings drove the surge. This report analyzes daily activity, week-over-week shifts by entity type, and the geographic hotspots behind the gains. It also frames the numbers against fresh market headlines on demand, fuel, and regulation from the past seven days to explain what’s pulling new entrants into (or keeping them out of) the market.
Weekly Overview
– Headline totals: 3,000 new registrations for Dec 1–7, comprising 2,734 carriers, 112 brokers, and 154 “others,” per the weekly history series. That’s a 50% jump from the holiday-shortened week of Nov 24–30 (2,000 total). Versus the pre-holiday week of Nov 17–23 (3,075), filings were 2.4% lower. Carriers rose 49% week over week (WoW), brokers 90%, and “others” 44%.
– IntrawEEK cadence: 80% of all filings landed Wednesday–Friday (Dec 3–5). This timing is consistent with a post-holiday catch-up pattern also visible in freight activity: DAT reported a steep Thanksgiving dip in postings followed by typical normalization. As shippers and service providers return, filings tend to cluster midweek.
– Mix and ratios: Carriers represented roughly 91% of the week’s total, brokers 3.7%, and others 5.1% (weekly_history basis). Using the daily roll-up, the composition is very similar at 91.5% carriers, 3.6% brokers, and 4.9% others (2744/109/147). The shared total (3,000) matches across both series; the slight mix discrepancy likely reflects timing/late adjustments between the daily feed and the weekly aggregation. We use the daily roll-ups for day-by-day analysis and the weekly series for week-over-week comparisons.
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | 91 | 6 | 7 | 104 |
| 2025-12-02 | 122 | 6 | 8 | 136 |
| 2025-12-03 | 597 | 24 | 35 | 656 |
| 2025-12-04 | 694 | 26 | 33 | 753 |
| 2025-12-05 | 926 | 38 | 34 | 998 |
| 2025-12-06 | 204 | 6 | 20 | 230 |
| 2025-12-07 | 110 | 3 | 10 | 123 |
| Week | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 to 2025-11-02 | 2,824 | 90 | 110 | 3,024 |
| 2025-11-03 to 2025-11-09 | 2,762 | 79 | 122 | 2,963 |
| 2025-11-10 to 2025-11-16 | 2,536 | 88 | 134 | 2,758 |
| 2025-11-17 to 2025-11-23 | 2,835 | 110 | 130 | 3,075 |
| 2025-11-24 to 2025-11-30 | 1,834 | 59 | 107 | 2,000 |
| 2025-12-01 to 2025-12-07 | 2,734 | 112 | 154 | 3,000 |
State-Level Trends
– Monday (Dec 1): Florida led with 10, followed by California (9). Pennsylvania and Texas tied at 6 each.
– Tuesday (Dec 2): California (14) edged Texas and Florida (13 each); Georgia posted 9.
– Wednesday (Dec 3): Texas (74) and California (64) paced the midweek surge, with Florida (55) and Georgia (42) solid.
– Thursday (Dec 4): Texas extended its lead (102), then California (85), Florida (53), New York (44), and Ohio (36).
– Friday (Dec 5): Texas (128) and California (116) stayed on top; Florida (72), Georgia (54), North Carolina (52), and Pennsylvania (50) rounded out a very strong day.
– Saturday (Dec 6): Texas (32) led a lighter weekend, ahead of Florida (24) and California (20).
– Sunday (Dec 7): Florida (11) finished first, with New Jersey and Texas at 10 each, then Georgia (8) and North Carolina (7).
Takeaways:
– The “Sun Belt + Coasts” axis dominated: Texas and California led on each high-volume day, with Florida consistently in the top three. This aligns with ongoing freight concentration in large consumer and import gateways, where new carriers often form to serve local drayage, regional e-commerce replenishment, and intrastate lanes.
– Northeast blips: New York (Dec 4) and New Jersey (Dec 7) posted notable spikes, consistent with year-end retail restocking tempo in the I-95 corridor.
– Cross-border presence: Canadian provinces (ON, AB, QC, SK, BC) appeared intermittently, reflecting foreign-domiciled carriers registering for U.S. operations—typical during peak-season repositioning.
Market Drivers
– Post-holiday normalization in freight: Thanksgiving week (Nov 23–29) saw steep drops in load and truck postings. As markets normalized the following week, spot rates—especially dry van—firmed, matching the burst of midweek USDOT filings we observe on Dec 3–5. In short, administrative catch-up and tactical new entrants tend to follow operational rebounds.
– Demand signals: The services side of the economy remained in modest expansion in November (ISM services PMI 52.6), suggesting continued baseline freight activity in distribution and consumer-facing sectors. Meanwhile, manufacturing stayed in contraction (ISM manufacturing PMI 48.2), which tends to cap heavy industrial freight growth—one reason carrier formations are strong but not overheating.
– Consumer pulse: Early December consumer sentiment ticked higher, with inflation expectations easing. That combination supports year-end retail flow-through—especially for parcels and replenishment—without signaling a breakout. This environment is consistent with steady but not explosive new registrations.
– Fuel costs: Diesel prices fell at the start of December, with the national average sliding to about $3.76/gal for the week of Dec 2. Regional readings also dipped: East Coast averaged roughly $3.79 and West Coast $4.44 for the week of Dec 1. Lower pump prices marginally improve operating margins and may encourage small-fleet formations at the margin—especially among owner-operators watching cents per mile closely.
– Safety and licensing scrutiny: A federal crackdown on noncompliant trucking schools, along with heightened scrutiny of licensing in some states, was prominent in the news over the past week. While industry sources expect minimal immediate disruption because many decertified schools were already idle, the climate could slow the pipeline of new drivers in certain jurisdictions—an indirect headwind for would-be carrier startups.
Outlook
– Near-term: With the holiday distortion fading, we expect registrations in the week of Dec 8–14 to settle closer to late-November “normal” levels (roughly the 2,900–3,100 range seen before the Thanksgiving dip), with a continued carrier-heavy mix. The midweek bias should persist as compliance teams clear backlogs and as small firms prepare for year-end work. Freight indicators point to a balanced but not booming finish to peak season.
– Entity mix: Carriers will likely remain above 90% of total filings. Broker counts—up sharply from the holiday trough—should stay modest in absolute terms while regulatory attention and tighter credit/trust requirements keep the bar high for new brokerages. “Others” (freight forwarders, leasing entities, etc.) should track overall activity and seasonal projects.
– Geography: Expect Texas, California, and Florida to continue leading weekly counts, with episodic Northeast spikes tied to retail flows. Watch New Jersey and New York for late-cycle filings as import distribution centers reposition inventory. Gulf and Southeast ports’ inland networks should keep feeding carrier formations in TX, GA, and the Carolinas.
– Risks and swing factors:
– Macro: If the services sector cools or if consumer sentiment slips back, December momentum could fade quickly. Conversely, a stable services PMI and firm e-commerce demand should underpin registrations.
– Fuel: Additional relief at the pump would be supportive for small entrants; a reversal in diesel could temper formations in January.
– Compliance: Ongoing scrutiny of driver training programs and licensing processes could slow new-driver throughput in select states, modestly affecting carrier startups where testing capacity tightens.
Bottom line: The Dec 1–7 rebound to 3,000 filings largely reflects post-Thanksgiving catch-up and seasonally strong distribution activity. Texas, California, and Florida anchored the surge, while brokers recovered from a holiday trough but remain a small share. With fuel easing and services activity holding, the near-term setup supports steady—not spectacular—new registrations into mid-December.
Sources Consulted: AJOT (DAT One/DAT iQ weekly spot market update); Reuters (ISM Services, Consumer Sentiment); PR Newswire (ISM Manufacturing report details); IndexBox (DOE/EIA weekly diesel price change); YCharts (EIA regional diesel averages); AP News (trucking schools and licensing scrutiny).
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