Introduction
During the week of January 12–18, 2026, USDOT logged 3,894 new registrations across carriers, brokers, and other authorities. Based on the finalized weekly history in the dataset, carriers accounted for 3,605 registrations (92.6% of the total), brokers 108 (2.8%), and others 181 (4.6%). It was the second straight week of strong momentum to start the year, following 3,575 total registrations in the prior week. As noted below, the week also displayed a familiar mid‑month pattern: a soft Monday followed by a surge into Thursday and Friday.
Weekly Overview
– Week-over-week change: Total registrations rose 8.9% (3,894 vs. 3,575). Carriers increased 8.0% (3,605 vs. 3,338), brokers dipped 3.6% (108 vs. 112), and “others” jumped 44.8% (181 vs. 125).
– Daily cadence: Activity crescendoed into the back half of the week. Friday, January 16, was the peak day with 1,029 total registrations; Monday, January 12, was the trough with 228.
Daily counts (Jan 12–18, 2026)
| Date | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 213 | 7 | 8 | 228 |
| 2026-01-13 | 504 | 16 | 13 | 533 |
| 2026-01-14 | 513 | 13 | 30 | 556 |
| 2026-01-15 | 774 | 27 | 37 | 838 |
| 2026-01-16 | 965 | 24 | 40 | 1029 |
| 2026-01-17 | 380 | 12 | 34 | 426 |
| 2026-01-18 | 263 | 8 | 13 | 284 |
Recent weekly totals (finalized history)
| Start | End | Carriers | Brokers | Others | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-11-02 | 2796 | 98 | 99 | 2993 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-09 | 2749 | 70 | 107 | 2926 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-16 | 2535 | 81 | 102 | 2718 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-23 | 2846 | 112 | 84 | 3042 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-30 | 1820 | 71 | 81 | 1972 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-07 | 2747 | 102 | 91 | 2940 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-14 | 2582 | 94 | 114 | 2790 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-21 | 2530 | 117 | 117 | 2764 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-28 | 1445 | 54 | 81 | 1580 |
| 2025-12-29 | 2026-01-04 | 1760 | 66 | 97 | 1923 |
| 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-11 | 3338 | 112 | 125 | 3575 |
| 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-18 | 3605 | 108 | 181 | 3894 |
Note: The sum of daily figures for Jan 12–18 yields carriers = 3,612; the weekly history shows 3,605. Such small deltas are common when daily tallies are later reclassified or corrected in the finalized weekly file. For trend analysis, the weekly history should be treated as canonical.
State-Level Trends
Top-origin states each day (by total registrations across authority types):
– Mon, Jan 12: TX (25), FL (23), CA (18), PA (17), GA (12).
– Tue, Jan 13: CA (66), TX (59), FL (42), NY (24), NC (21).
– Wed, Jan 14: TX (75), CA (66), FL (46), PA (29), GA/NY (23 each; tie).
– Thu, Jan 15: TX (93), CA (82), FL (58), GA (46), PA (43).
– Fri, Jan 16: TX (137), CA (108), FL (87), GA (53), NJ (47).
– Sat, Jan 17: FL (60), CA (46), TX (40), NJ/GA (20 each; tie).
– Sun, Jan 18: TX (41), GA (33), FL (27), MD (15), MI (14).
What stands out:
– Texas and California consistently rank at or near the top, with Texas leading the Friday push. Florida shows pronounced weekend strength (Saturday leader), likely reflecting small-fleet and intrastate entrants aligning launches to local demand rhythms.
– New Jersey’s spike on Friday (47) and Georgia’s steady presence in the top five suggest ongoing activity in key East Coast distribution corridors.
– Midwestern states appear regularly in the upper-middle tiers, while the Northeast contributes steady, smaller volumes outside New York and New Jersey.
Market Drivers
Three macro factors help explain the robust registration flow and the sharp late‑week ramp:
1) Fuel cost tailwinds entering mid‑January. EIA’s weekly Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update on January 13 reported the U.S. on‑highway diesel average at $3.477 per gallon for January 5, with declines across most regions versus late December. Lower early‑January diesel improves operating breakevens and can pull marginal capacity into the market, dovetailing with elevated carrier registrations. The next update is slated for Wednesday, January 21 (shifted from Monday due to the MLK holiday).
2) Demand signals holding up better than feared. The U.S. Census Bureau’s advance retail sales for November (released January 14) showed a 0.6% month‑over‑month gain, a positive read on goods‑oriented consumer activity heading into year‑end. While a lagging metric relative to this registration week, it supports the view that inventories and replenishment cycles entering Q1 were not collapsing, helping sustain new market entrants’ optimism.
3) Rates and capacity dynamics are less hostile than a year ago. According to Trucking Dive’s January 15 tracker (citing DAT iQ), national linehaul spot rates softened in the first full January week but fell more slowly than typical seasonality, with dry van down just $0.02 per mile week over week and flatbed holding steady—evidence that the post‑holiday “air pocket” is milder than usual. Meanwhile, FTR’s early‑year outlook describes 2026 as a “marginless recovery,” with spot rates projected to rise about 3.6% and contract rates 2.6% this year—modest, but directionally supportive for carrier formation if costs remain contained.
Weather also played—and will continue to play—a role. The week immediately following our observation window saw a significant winter storm in the Great Lakes region, including a 100‑vehicle pileup on I‑196 near Grand Rapids on January 19. Such events temporarily remove capacity, disrupt networks, and can spill over into elevated spot demand regionally—conditions under which new or reactivated authorities often find rapid load opportunities.
Outlook
Looking ahead to the week of January 19–25, two opposing forces are in play:
– A holiday‑shortened administrative week (MLK Day) typically defers some filings and data releases to mid‑week; EIA’s fuel update shifts to Wednesday, January 21, which may briefly obscure cost signals for new entrants.
– Persistent winter weather risks in the Midwest and Northeast can tighten local capacity and keep spot opportunities buoyant, especially after holiday staffing normalizes. This backdrop, coupled with steadier‑than‑normal early‑January trucking rates and supportive retail indicators, suggests carrier registrations should remain elevated versus late‑December troughs, though not necessarily match the Friday, January 16, spike without a similar confluence of timing and weather‑related urgency.
Strategic implications for market participants:
– Carriers: With diesel still below late‑2025 levels in several regions and rate declines less severe than typical January patterns, small fleets and owner‑operators can selectively add capacity in sunbelt and coastal lanes where state‑level registration strength is most evident (TX, CA, FL, GA, NJ). Keep an eye on mid‑Atlantic and Great Lakes corridors for post‑storm dislocations that lift short‑haul rates.
– Brokers: The week’s 3.6% broker registration dip versus the prior week, alongside stronger carrier growth, points to a near‑term environment where relationship depth and service differentiation matter more than pure headcount. Expect tight pockets around weather‑impacted metros and use those to reinforce contractual coverage with shippers.
– Shippers: With retail momentum stabilizing and capacity pockets tightening episodically, align routing guides to prioritize incumbents in Texas–Southeast–Mid‑Atlantic flows. Monitor Wednesday fuel updates for early cost inflections and adjust fuel surcharge schedules accordingly.
Bottom line: The first half of January is shaping up as a constructive, if not booming, setup for new USDOT registrations—carriers are leaning in, brokers are consolidating, and “others” are surging off a small base. If fuel remains cooperative and weather disruptions stay intermittent rather than systemic, January should close well above late‑December levels for new authorities.
Sources Consulted: EIA Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Update and Holiday Schedule (Jan 13 & Jan 21 release timing); U.S. Census Bureau economic indicator calendar (Advance Retail Sales for November released Jan 14, 2026) and news coverage of the release (AP, Investopedia); Trucking Dive spot rate tracker (Jan 15, 2026, citing DAT iQ); FTR 2026 outlook coverage (Truck News, Jan 15, 2026); AP News reporting on the Jan 19, 2026 Michigan pileup and winter storm impacts.
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